p-j-r / covid-19

Stochastic SIR models; adding age-structures and social contact data for the spread of covid-19. Lattice model for identifying and isolating hotspots. This has been further developed into a network(graph) of multiple clusters(lattices) and tracing the infection in such a population.

Models

The following epidemiological models for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) have been implemented:

Agent based network random walks

PDF: pjr.pdf

Rate of adding of clusters:(It's random!) Looks like a linear fit though!

SIR- Stochastic

Using Gillespie algorithm a basic SIR model is generated.
Differential equation solution: corona_diff
Stochastic simulation: corona_stochastic

SIR- Age Structure & Social contact based

I- Both symptomatic & asymptomatic
The age and social contact data for India that is needed to construct structured compartment models can be found at the following source:

Age Structure & Contact Matrices: data
Research Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055.pdf

Source-code

Hotspots & Contact Tracing model

Uses networkX package and modelling the disease spread as a lattice, providing a way to identify and isolate the Hotspots.