Epiforecasts

Epiforecasts's repositories

EpiNow2

Estimate Realtime Case Counts and Time-varying Epidemiological Parameters

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scoringutils

Utilities for Scoring and Assessing Predictions

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socialmixr

R package for deriving social mixing matrices from survey data.

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An interface to subnational and national level COVID-19 data. For all countries supported, this includes a daily time-series of cases. Wherever available we also provide data on deaths, hospitalisations, and tests. National level data is also supported using a range of data sources as well as linelist data and links to intervention data sets.

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EpiNow

Estimate Realtime Case Counts and Time-varying Epidemiological Parameters

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inc2prev

Estimate epidemiological quantities from repeated cross-sectional prevalence measurements

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omicron-sgtf-forecast

In this work, we use S-gene target failure (SGTF) as a proxy of variant status combined with reported case counts to explore the evidence for changes in transmission advantage over time for the Omicron variant. If present this could indicate the impact of immune escape, bias in SGTF data or differences in the populations within which the variants are circulating. We also report estimates for growth rates by variant and overall, case counts overall and by variant for a 14 day forecast window assuming constant future growth, the date at which Omicron will become dominant in England and in each NHS region, and the estimated cumulative percentage of the population with a reported Omicron case.

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