COVID-19
My PyMC3 model based on this Hacker News comment:
The general issue with this measure of mortality
(dead / (infected + dead))is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate(dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data, we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of SARS of 9.6%.
This model suggests we could be closer to a 13+% death-to-recovery rate based on the available small datasets.
Note: data from China and Iran were not used.
