xblueberry / Time-Series-Analysis-Project

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Time-Series-Analysis-Project

This consists on a time series analysis of the Trade of Goods in Spain in the period 1990-2017. This dataset is part of the International Financial Statistics dataset of the International Monetary Fund e-library.

In the first part, a univariate analysis is conducted on the value of exports in national currency. In the second part, a multivariate analysis is done to relate the value of exports with the value of imports in national currency. The original dataset also includes the period 1960-1990; however, after taking differences and seasonal differences this period shows a higher variance than the period 1990-2017. The increase from 1990 has been steeper than the one in the period 1960-1990. The change is most likely caused by the accession of Spain in the European Economic Community (EEC) in January of 1986. We consider this point as a structural break; so we limit the analysis only to the period 1990-2017.

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