Assuming information from CDC and WHO is correct, and the R-Nought (2.5) for This new Corona Virus is correct, I have written this simple computer simulation that should give you time to prepare accordingly. This simulation is based on Toronto. If you would like me to produce one for your city, please send me a DM with your cities population, and assume you have a single case. Of course this is just a "fun" simulation I wrote so take it with a grain of salt. Also, please consider this does not take into consideration a 14 day incubation period - which would cause a delay in confirmed / probable cases. Based on this Data I recommend an N95 mask by day 8 and constant hand washing from day 6. Also this simulation does not take into consideration the time it takes to die from the virus. So death tolls are expected to lag from this simulation. This simulation takes into consideration the reduction in R-Nought due quarantine measures (10% effective). This will slow the initial outbreak slightly.
This simulator assumes quarentine in Toronto fails and an active outbreak occurs.
=Day: 1=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 2
New/Undetected Cases: 5
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:0.00 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 0.00 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9998
Used Ventilators: 2
Infected Individuals: 11
% of population: 0.0001300000
New Deaths: 0
Cumulative Deaths: 0
=Day: 2=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 6
New/Undetected Cases: 16
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:13334.42 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 13334.42 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9992
Used Ventilators: 8
Infected Individuals: 35
% of population: 0.0004225000
New Deaths: 0
Cumulative Deaths: 0
=Day: 3=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 21
New/Undetected Cases: 52
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:53337.68 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 66672.10 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9974
Used Ventilators: 26
Infected Individuals: 116
% of population: 0.0013731250
New Deaths: 1
Cumulative Deaths: 1
=Day: 4=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 68
New/Undetected Cases: 171
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:173347.46 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 240019.56 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9915
Used Ventilators: 85
Infected Individuals: 376
% of population: 0.0044426562
New Deaths: 4
Cumulative Deaths: 5
=Day: 5=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 223
New/Undetected Cases: 557
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:566712.85 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 806732.41 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9725
Used Ventilators: 275
Infected Individuals: 1222
% of population: 0.0144036328
New Deaths: 15
Cumulative Deaths: 20
=Day: 6=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 725
New/Undetected Cases: 1812
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:1833482.75 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 2640215.16 CAD
Available Ventilators: 9107
Used Ventilators: 893
Infected Individuals: 3968
% of population: 0.0467368066
New Deaths: 49
Cumulative Deaths: 69
=Day: 7=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 2356
New/Undetected Cases: 5892
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:5953818.53 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 8594033.69 CAD
Available Ventilators: 7096
Used Ventilators: 2904
Infected Individuals: 12893
% of population: 0.1518146216
New Deaths: 159
Cumulative Deaths: 228
=Day: 8=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 7659
New/Undetected Cases: 19149
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:19361577.84 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 27955611.53 CAD
Available Ventilators: 560
Used Ventilators: 9440
Infected Individuals: 41900
% of population: 0.4933225201
New Deaths: 517
Cumulative Deaths: 745
=Day: 9=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 24894
New/Undetected Cases: 62235
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:62938462.40 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 90894073.93 CAD
Available Ventilators: 0
Used Ventilators: 10000
Infected Individuals: 136172
% of population: 1.6032181905
New Deaths: 1683
Cumulative Deaths: 2428
=Day: 10=
Number of Confirmed/Probable Cases: 80905
New/Undetected Cases: 202264
Direct (Per Day) Cost to Social System:66672100.00 CAD
Cumulative Cost to Social System: 157566173.93 CAD
Available Ventilators: 0
Used Ventilators: 10000
Infected Individuals: 442554
% of population: 5.2103241190
New Deaths: 39077
Cumulative Deaths: 41505