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On the clumping of lottery serial numbers

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On the probability of clumping of lottery serial numbers

Toni Giorgino

In the 2020 extraction of the Italian lottery, there was a "clump" of 3 almost-consecutive winning serial numbers, namely P474343, P474346, P474348. This has raised suspicions.

Q. How likely it is that such a clumping, or a stronger one, would arise given the null hypothesis that winning numbers are independent and uniformly probable, sampled without replacement?

Let's use a simple Monte-carlo (how apt) simulation to answer the question Q, which is of course framed as a Fisher-style null-hypothesis test.

See the solution here, as a Markdown file.

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On the clumping of lottery serial numbers


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