tanhakate / arima

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Using ARIMA modelling techniques to predict United States' military spending

This paper forecasts the United States’ military spending in absolute terms and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Military spending data for the period 1949-2016 collected by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is used. For each forecast period, the ARIMA model outputs the forecast value, a standard error estimate for the forecast value, and the lower and upper limits for a 95% prediction interval. Results obtained reveal that the ARIMA model has a strong potential for short-term prediction.

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License:MIT License