UPDATE: YES, the official 2020 NBA MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Predictions made prior to the start of the season (as of June 27, 2019)
Player Name
Rank
Giannis Antetokounmpo
1.393
Rudy Gobert
1.331
James Harden
1.172
Nikola Jokic
0.881
Anthony Davis
0.828
Karl-Anthony Towns
0.629
Kevin Durant
0.339
Notes
None yet.
2018 - 2019 Predictions
UPDATE: YES, the official 2019 NBA MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Predictions made prior to the start of the season
Player Name
Rank
Giannis Antetokounmpo
0.899(1)
LeBron James
0.871(2)
James Harden
0.835(3)
Anthony Davis
0.830(4)
Karl Anthony Towns
0.73(5)
Kawhi Leonard
0.55(6)
Nikola Jokic
0.33(7)
Notes
The methodology used for 2019 was different than the method used for 2018. The 2018 MVP was predicted using a progressive method that updated every week. The 2019 MVP was predicted entirely before the season began (I'll be using this method moving forward).
Upon running the 2019 model on the 2018 field, these were the results:
James Harden
Anthony Davis
LeBron James
Karl Anthony Towns (?)
1.559(1)
1.036(2)
0.799(3)
0.608(4)
data/mvpForecast.csv contains forecasted advanced stats for ESPN's top 20 NBA players of the 2018-2019 season.
forecast.py is responsible for generating the aforementioned future stats.
predict.py is responsible for ranking the MVP candidates based on the model.
mvp_statline.py is an independent script that predicts the per-game and advanced stats of this season's MVP.
mvp_statline's predictions for this season's MVP
ppg
rpg
apg
per
vorp
+/-
ts%
28.8
7.1
7.3
29.0
8.67
10.2
0.61
2017 - 2018 Predictions
Final frontrunner: James Harden
ppg
per
vorp
+/-
ts%
30.4
29.8
8.3
10.9
0.619
Predictions as of April 12, 2018
James Harden
LeBron James
Anthony Davis
Russell Westbrook
29%(1)
21%(2)
14%(3)
7%(4)
In October of 2017, mvp-predict generated this as the projected MVP statline: