Predicting the Qatar 2022 World Cup winner from the Round of 16 games.
Normalized 50% FIFA ELO + Normalized 50% "Power Rank" (form rank in Qatar 2022), then used to find the cumulative distribution function coefficient. cdf of each team is used as weights in predicting the winner of a match.
For every match where it's deemed important, Power Rank is calculated from subtracting the square root of the expected goal of the team (xG) from the square root of the actual goal (score).
Scraped match data is from https://fbref.com. FIFA ELO is from https://eloratings.net.