GV2022 World Cup Predicitons
I entered a contest to try and predict the 2022 Fifa World Cup with very little prior knoweldge. You can read a blog post about my attempt here: https://philswatton.github.io/r/2022/11/21/world-cup-forecasting.html
Files
- 01_elo.R: Processing of data, computation of elo ratings for the teams (see note below on data)
- 02_monte-carlo.R: Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament
- 03_results.R: Producing outputs from the simulation into nicer formats
Data
- Past match results data: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017?resource=download
- 2022 fixtures data: https://fixturedownload.com/
- team_ratings.RData elo ratings data produced in script 01
- fixtures.RData: slightly tidied fixture data for group stages produced in script 01
As in the code, I stored the files from these in a 'data' folder. If using this repository, you will have to download the data and create this yourself. (Sorry!)
I have however included data I generated myself. So you'll need to reproduce the data folder for script 01, but
Results
- results.RData: Various R objects encoding simulation results used in script 03
- results/results_01_group_fixtures.csv: Group stages game fixture probabilities
- results/results_02_expected_group_order.csv: Group stages order predictions and probabilities (for most likely order)
- results/results_03_expected_team_performances.csv: Expected team performances given in probabilities for reaching the last 16, reaching the quarter finals, reaching the semi finals, reaching the final, and winning overall
- HTML versions of results 02 and 03 are also available!