Open Model Project - 2020 Georgia Senate Runoff Polling
About our Project: https://www.openmodelproject.org/
Poll Results: https://www.openmodelproject.org/inhouse/
Poll Methodology: https://www.openmodelproject.org/polling-method/
About
We’ve adopted a radically transparent and messily iterative approach to election modeling, giving everyone free and open access to the model and encouraging you to spin the dials, pull the levers, and see how it actually works. And we’re inviting you to help us make it better.
We don’t pretend to have a recipe for the perfect election forecast. But we do recognize that the current state of the art is sorely lacking. We’re focused on building tools that enable people with zero coding skills to make their own tweaks, apply their own assumptions, and test the model’s logic and sensitivities. And when you find something that doesn’t make sense, we ask you to help us improve it.
We’re using the twin Georgia Senate runoff elections on January 5th as a proof of concept. We’ve built the kernel of the model, some visualization and interaction tools for you to play with, and given you some forums to debate and collaborate what works and what doesn’t.
And to better facilitate the Georgia prototype, we’ve also commissioned our own poll of Georgia voters, which we’ve published here with the same focus on transparency and interactivity. Every poll makes use of (sometimes subjective) weights to normalize the demographic or ideological composition of the respondents. Pollsters often make additional judgments about the likelihood of their respondents to actually vote- another opportunity to enhance the accuracy of the poll, but another opportunity for subjectivity to unduly influence the results. Our interactive poll explorer not only links you straight to the raw data, but offers you user-friendly ways to change any and all of the demographic weights and likely voter screening factors.
Once you’ve had a chance to check it out, we hope you’ll join the conversation - whether as a collaborator, a lurker, or a leader of the Open Model Project.
See more at https://www.openmodelproject.org/