Modeling and simulations and for 2024 Euro Cup and Copa America. A write up of this project can be found on my website.
- fit_model.R: Estimates Bayesian bivariate Poisson model. For more details, see Equation (2) of Benz and Lopez, 2021, or the breakdown on my website.
For working with the model coefficients, please check out the file predictions/ratings.csv, with constants
home_field = 0.3300421
neutral_field = 0.1849969
mu = -0.06282729
- euro_sim.R: Run 10,000 simulations of the Euro Cup tournament
- copa_sim.R: Run 10,000 simulations of the Copa America tournament
- helpers.R: Helper functions for sims.
- game_preds.R Save out predictions for individual games.
- graphics.R: Script for plotting graphics related to tournament advancement history
- make_table.R: Script for making gt tables.
Data (internation_soccer_score.csv) courtesy Kaggle.
Flag figures courtesy of Flaticon.
