Repository containing the notebooks used for the forecast-based attribution analysis of the 2019 European winter heatwave. The order of the notebooks (& figures they produce in brackets), as the analysis progresses in the text, is:
- "The_event" (Fig. 1);
- "The_forecasts" (Fig. 2);
- "The_experiments" (Fig. 3);
- "The_attribution" (Fig. 4).
In these notebooks, we use data from the following sources:
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., … Thépaut, J. N. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730), 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803; available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/search?type=dataset&text=ERA5.
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., & Jones, P. D. (2018). An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(17), 9391–9409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200; available at https://surfobs.climate.copernicus.eu/dataaccess/access_eobs.php.
Dunn, R. J. H., Willett, K. M., Parker, D. E., & Mitchell, L. (2016). Expanding HadISD: quality-controlled, sub-daily station data from 1931. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, 5(2), 473–491. https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-473-2016; available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisd/v312_202107p/download.html.
Leach, N. J. (2020). Operational and perturbed CO2 forecasts of the February 2019 heatwave. ECMWF’s Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System (MARS). https://www.ecmwf.int/en/support; also available upon request from Nicholas Leach.