Georgia country becomes one of the top travel destinations in recent years. Understanding the characteristics of the time series representing international visits to the country provides valuable insights for business. In this exercise, the main interest ware seasonality pattern, trend, and variance. The outcome is used in budgeting and revenue planning for one of the local hotels.
Using Linear Regression and ARIMA, I used a simple yet helpful time series decomposition and a straightforward approach to forecasting. There are other methods, but the choice wasn’t accidental. The end-user needed a solution that could be easy to understand. Project took place before covid-19 pandemic. The data comes from the Georgian Ministry of Tourism. https://gnta.ge/statistics/