mgaringoDev / myOntarioCovidModelTrendAnalysis

Regional COVID modeling and trend analysis. Visit the project page for more detail.

Visit the project page for a more detailed look on how the images below were created.

Introduction

I wanted to get a deeper insight on the current state of things here in Ontario. This is by no means a comprehensive look at all possible models but only the models that I have come across through my readings.

Data Set

Berry I, Soucy J-PR, Tuite A, Fisman D. Open access epidemiologic data and an interactive dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada. CMAJ. 2020 Apr 14;192(15):E420.

To Do:

• Trend Analysis:

  • Log Regression
  • fbProphet

• Model Creation:

  • SIR(M)
  • SAIR(M)
  • SDIR(M)
  • SIGR(M)
  • SEIR(M)

• Prediction:

  • [ ]

Order of Reading

Looking at Growth Rates

Looking at Trends

These are the critical dates from the above graph.

Modeling Trends

Comapring Trends