kylechanpols / euro2020

Repo for a simply bayesian program to make predictions on Euro2020 games.

A simple Bayesian Model to predict EURO 2020 Results

This is a very simple Bayesian Model that predicts Results of EURO 2020 games that I wrote as a fun project in a day. You can find the technical writeup about this project on my website

Description of files

Datasets

base_data.xlsx - Basic tally and outcome matrices for the EURO 2020 Qualifiers. Data acquired from this Wikipedia page

qualifiers.csv - Dyadic data of different teams during the qualifiers. Constructed by flattening the outcome matrices in base_data.xlsx.

week1_games.xlsx - Example of new data to be fed to the Bayesian model for predictions.

Code

flattenmatrix.R - A simple R program to flatten a matrix.

data_wrangling.R - A sample R script to clean the data and construct qualifiers.csv.

utils.R - A script containing helper functions for the Bayesian Model

euro2020_v2_predictive.stan - Stan program for the prediction.