AI Timelines

A collection of AI timelines modeled with Squiggle.

Cotra's best guess timeline (2020)

Cotra's distribution for FLOP required to produce a TAI, weighted average over all 6 biological anchors (& 7th long-term hypothesis).

Currently, this repo houses a simplified version of Ajeya Cotra's AI timelines report.

TODO: Formalize Ajeya's updates in Bayesian terms on these original timelines.

Squiggle is a programming language for probabilistic estimation perfect for writing and sharing models like these.

It's still early-stage, so this repo is also very much a proof-of-concept for the language. There are a few limitations:

No native-support for skew-normal (yet). Cotra makes use of skew-normal a lot. We have to make do with a dingy replacement.
- To see the same model but with skew-normals replaced with log-normals, check out /cotra2020/compute-levels-alt.squiggle.
No support for imports makes this one ugly code base. Sorry.