This repository contains the code for the preliminary analysis of the data provided by Schumacher & Öhberg (2020) in their study of political responses to opinion polls. This preliminary analysis was used to motivate the design of an ABM with the purpose of examining decision making strategies in the context of politics. This project has been developed in joint effort by Orla Mallon, Jan Kostkan, & Sofie Ditmer. The abstract of the paper can be read below.
This paper examines the political response of parties adhering to different formal models of decision making to opinion polls. An agent-based model (ABM) is developed in which agents representing political parties are presented with opinion polls displaying either increasing or decreasing electoral support. This is used to capture and characterise the emerging patterns of radicalisation between different forms of decision making. Distinct radicalisation trends are identified between prospect theory agents and utility theory agents and contextualised in respect to real-world political observations.