Apparently, a Poisson distribution model is not a bad way to predict sports results where the scoring is not dependent on previous events.
It's more for fun than science as there are various weaknesses of the model even when applied to fairly simple scoring system like in soccer. Aussie rules has a slightly more complex scoring system (Goals = 6 points; Behinds = 1 point) and the game does not restart in the centre of the field after a Behind is scored.
Really an excuse to write some code and to participate in a footy tipping comp without keeping up to date with the AFL.
Feel free to play with the source code (afl_tipping.py) and build upon this toy model.
| Round | Predicted Winner | Home Team | Away Team | Chance Home Team Wins | Chance of Draw | Chance Away Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond | Carlton | Richmond | 2.17% | 0.45% | 97.38% |
| 1 | Geelong | Collingwood | Geelong | 16.82% | 2.00% | 81.19% |
| 1 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Port Adelaide | 61.93% | 2.84% | 35.23% |
| 1 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Hawthorn | 93.35% | 0.90% | 5.75% |
| 1 | Sydney | Western Bulldogs | Sydney | 9.24% | 1.41% | 89.35% |
| 1 | West Coast | Brisbane | West Coast | 0.41% | 0.10% | 99.49% |
| 1 | St Kilda | St Kilda | Gold Coast | 98.15% | 0.32% | 1.53% |
| 1 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Essendon | 99.77% | 0.05% | 0.18% |
| 1 | North Melbourne | Fremantle | North Melbourne | 12.78% | 1.67% | 85.55% |
| 2 | Richmond | Richmond | Collingwood | 78.36% | 2.18% | 19.46% |
| 2 | Sydney | Sydney | Adelaide | 73.76% | 2.41% | 23.83% |
| 2 | Essendon | Essendon | St Kilda | 63.99% | 2.76% | 33.25% |
| 2 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Carlton | 99.96% | 0.01% | 0.03% |
| 2 | Geelong | Geelong | Melbourne | 94.98% | 0.73% | 4.28% |
| 2 | West Coast | West Coast | GWS Giants | 56.31% | 3.00% | 40.69% |
| 2 | North Melbourne | North Melbourne | Brisbane | 99.52% | 0.09% | 0.39% |
| 2 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Western Bulldogs | 91.59% | 1.15% | 7.26% |
| 2 | Gold Coast | Gold Coast | Fremantle | 52.96% | 3.10% | 43.94% |
| 3 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Geelong | 63.99% | 2.75% | 33.27% |
| 3 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Essendon | 97.93% | 0.34% | 1.73% |
| 3 | Sydney | Carlton | Sydney | 0.10% | 0.03% | 99.86% |
| 3 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Richmond | 92.94% | 0.98% | 6.08% |
| 3 | Port Adelaide | Brisbane | Port Adelaide | 0.88% | 0.19% | 98.93% |
| 3 | West Coast | Collingwood | West Coast | 37.01% | 2.91% | 60.08% |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | Gold Coast | 99.11% | 0.17% | 0.72% |
| 3 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | North Melbourne | 89.33% | 1.32% | 9.35% |
| 3 | St Kilda | Fremantle | St Kilda | 28.53% | 2.69% | 68.79% |
| 4 | Sydney | Sydney | Melbourne | 93.85% | 0.88% | 5.27% |
| 4 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Western Bulldogs | 84.25% | 1.81% | 13.94% |
| 4 | Geelong | Geelong | GWS Giants | 78.39% | 2.19% | 19.42% |
| 4 | Essendon | Essendon | Brisbane | 96.21% | 0.55% | 3.24% |
| 4 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Richmond | 80.50% | 2.08% | 17.42% |
| 4 | Adelaide | North Melbourne | Adelaide | 12.53% | 1.56% | 85.91% |
| 4 | West Coast | West Coast | Fremantle | 99.95% | 0.01% | 0.04% |
| 4 | Gold Coast | Gold Coast | Carlton | 67.54% | 2.80% | 29.66% |
| 4 | Hawthorn | St Kilda | Hawthorn | 22.80% | 2.35% | 74.85% |
| 5 | Collingwood | Brisbane | Collingwood | 3.96% | 0.65% | 95.39% |
| 5 | North Melbourne | North Melbourne | Essendon | 90.46% | 1.20% | 8.34% |
| 5 | West Coast | West Coast | Port Adelaide | 77.32% | 2.27% | 20.41% |
| 5 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Fremantle | 99.99% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Melbourne | Melbourne | St Kilda | 96.79% | 0.50% | 2.71% |
| 5 | Sydney | Richmond | Sydney | 27.08% | 2.68% | 70.24% |
| 5 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | Carlton | 98.75% | 0.24% | 1.01% |
| 5 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Gold Coast | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Geelong | Hawthorn | Geelong | 28.44% | 2.67% | 68.89% |
| 6 | Richmond | Richmond | Melbourne | 65.57% | 2.73% | 31.70% |
| 6 | Collingwood | Essendon | Collingwood | 29.68% | 2.64% | 67.67% |
| 6 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne | 92.75% | 0.99% | 6.26% |
| 6 | Gold Coast | Gold Coast | Brisbane | 61.69% | 2.72% | 35.59% |
| 6 | Adelaide | St Kilda | Adelaide | 4.15% | 0.69% | 95.16% |
| 6 | Sydney | Sydney | GWS Giants | 75.82% | 2.38% | 21.80% |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs | Fremantle | Western Bulldogs | 18.35% | 2.21% | 79.44% |
| 6 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Carlton | 99.93% | 0.02% | 0.06% |
| 6 | Geelong | Geelong | West Coast | 87.29% | 1.54% | 11.17% |
| 7 | Port Adelaide | Collingwood | Port Adelaide | 46.31% | 3.06% | 50.63% |
| 7 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Hawthorn | 70.57% | 2.52% | 26.91% |
| 7 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | St Kilda | 99.60% | 0.08% | 0.32% |
| 7 | Sydney | Brisbane | Sydney | 0.08% | 0.02% | 99.90% |
| 7 | Richmond | Western Bulldogs | Richmond | 40.68% | 3.10% | 56.21% |
| 7 | West Coast | West Coast | Gold Coast | 99.99% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
| 7 | North Melbourne | Carlton | North Melbourne | 6.52% | 1.05% | 92.44% |
| 7 | Geelong | Geelong | Essendon | 99.90% | 0.02% | 0.08% |
| 7 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Fremantle | 99.99% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Sydney | Sydney | Essendon | 99.84% | 0.04% | 0.12% |
| 8 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | Brisbane | 98.83% | 0.21% | 0.96% |
| 8 | Collingwood | Carlton | Collingwood | 3.63% | 0.67% | 95.70% |
| 8 | Melbourne | Gold Coast | Melbourne | 0.98% | 0.21% | 98.81% |
| 8 | West Coast | St Kilda | West Coast | 11.31% | 1.53% | 87.16% |
| 8 | Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Adelaide | 43.18% | 2.95% | 53.88% |
| 8 | Geelong | North Melbourne | Geelong | 10.02% | 1.40% | 88.58% |
| 8 | GWS Giants | Hawthorn | GWS Giants | 37.96% | 2.93% | 59.11% |
| 8 | Richmond | Fremantle | Richmond | 4.83% | 0.84% | 94.32% |
| 9 | West Coast | West Coast | Melbourne | 84.30% | 1.73% | 13.96% |
| 9 | Collingwood | Collingwood | St Kilda | 92.24% | 1.04% | 6.72% |
| 9 | Adelaide | Brisbane | Adelaide | 0.06% | 0.02% | 99.93% |
| 9 | Geelong | Geelong | Western Bulldogs | 99.23% | 0.15% | 0.61% |
| 9 | Essendon | Essendon | Fremantle | 92.41% | 1.04% | 6.55% |
| 9 | Sydney | North Melbourne | Sydney | 11.73% | 1.59% | 86.68% |
| 9 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Gold Coast | 99.98% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
| 9 | Richmond | Richmond | Hawthorn | 65.28% | 2.80% | 31.92% |
| 9 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Carlton | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 10 | Sydney | Sydney | Collingwood | 97.14% | 0.47% | 2.38% |
| 10 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Port Adelaide | 61.52% | 2.92% | 35.56% |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | North Melbourne | 62.65% | 2.89% | 34.46% |
| 10 | Adelaide | Adelaide | West Coast | 84.46% | 1.70% | 13.84% |
| 10 | Geelong | Gold Coast | Geelong | 0.04% | 0.01% | 99.95% |
| 10 | Richmond | Richmond | Essendon | 96.74% | 0.52% | 2.74% |
| 10 | GWS Giants | Melbourne | GWS Giants | 37.86% | 2.87% | 59.27% |
| 10 | St Kilda | St Kilda | Carlton | 97.53% | 0.42% | 2.05% |
| 10 | Fremantle | Fremantle | Brisbane | 77.44% | 2.15% | 20.41% |
| 11 | Richmond | North Melbourne | Richmond | 48.25% | 3.02% | 48.73% |
| 11 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Fremantle | 99.31% | 0.14% | 0.56% |
| 11 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Gold Coast | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Geelong | Geelong | Sydney | 71.66% | 2.62% | 25.72% |
| 11 | Hawthorn | Brisbane | Hawthorn | 1.54% | 0.30% | 98.16% |
| 11 | Adelaide | Melbourne | Adelaide | 33.96% | 2.68% | 63.36% |
| 11 | Port Adelaide | St Kilda | Port Adelaide | 16.75% | 1.99% | 81.26% |
| 11 | Essendon | Essendon | Carlton | 96.42% | 0.57% | 3.01% |
| 11 | West Coast | West Coast | Western Bulldogs | 96.58% | 0.56% | 2.86% |
| 12 | Geelong | Richmond | Geelong | 24.50% | 2.51% | 72.99% |
| 12 | Carlton | Carlton | Brisbane | 63.11% | 2.78% | 34.11% |
| 12 | North Melbourne | Gold Coast | North Melbourne | 5.34% | 0.87% | 93.80% |
| 12 | Adelaide | Adelaide | GWS Giants | 73.93% | 2.33% | 23.74% |
| 12 | Sydney | Sydney | West Coast | 85.31% | 1.74% | 12.95% |
| 12 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Melbourne | 55.50% | 2.92% | 41.59% |
| 13 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Richmond | 94.72% | 0.75% | 4.52% |
| 13 | Hawthorn | Essendon | Hawthorn | 17.73% | 2.03% | 80.24% |
| 13 | St Kilda | Gold Coast | St Kilda | 15.22% | 1.86% | 82.92% |
| 13 | Port Adelaide | Fremantle | Port Adelaide | 2.27% | 0.46% | 97.27% |
| 13 | Western Bulldogs | Carlton | Western Bulldogs | 10.32% | 1.54% | 88.15% |
| 13 | GWS Giants | North Melbourne | GWS Giants | 15.39% | 1.85% | 82.76% |
| 14 | West Coast | West Coast | Essendon | 99.29% | 0.14% | 0.57% |
| 14 | Sydney | Sydney | Hawthorn | 93.45% | 0.94% | 5.61% |
| 14 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Fremantle | 99.81% | 0.04% | 0.15% |
| 14 | St Kilda | St Kilda | Brisbane | 97.48% | 0.39% | 2.13% |
| 14 | Geelong | Port Adelaide | Geelong | 36.64% | 2.97% | 60.38% |
| 14 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | Collingwood | 50.74% | 3.11% | 46.15% |
| 15 | GWS Giants | Essendon | GWS Giants | 3.84% | 0.67% | 95.48% |
| 15 | Geelong | Geelong | Adelaide | 76.49% | 2.23% | 21.28% |
| 15 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | West Coast | 52.31% | 3.04% | 44.64% |
| 15 | Sydney | Sydney | Gold Coast | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Collingwood | Collingwood | North Melbourne | 80.31% | 2.00% | 17.69% |
| 15 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs | 94.28% | 0.86% | 4.86% |
| 15 | Richmond | St Kilda | Richmond | 27.03% | 2.59% | 70.38% |
| 15 | Melbourne | Brisbane | Melbourne | 1.36% | 0.26% | 98.38% |
| 15 | Fremantle | Fremantle | Carlton | 80.66% | 2.14% | 17.20% |
| 16 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Collingwood | 82.15% | 1.91% | 15.94% |
| 16 | Sydney | Essendon | Sydney | 2.76% | 0.53% | 96.71% |
| 16 | Richmond | Gold Coast | Richmond | 1.63% | 0.34% | 98.03% |
| 16 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Port Adelaide | 89.44% | 1.30% | 9.27% |
| 16 | Geelong | Western Bulldogs | Geelong | 7.82% | 1.23% | 90.95% |
| 16 | West Coast | Fremantle | West Coast | 1.23% | 0.27% | 98.50% |
| 16 | Melbourne | Carlton | Melbourne | 1.35% | 0.29% | 98.35% |
| 16 | North Melbourne | North Melbourne | St Kilda | 86.93% | 1.51% | 11.55% |
| 16 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Brisbane | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | West Coast | West Coast | Collingwood | 91.67% | 1.11% | 7.22% |
| 17 | Sydney | Sydney | Carlton | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Fremantle | 99.77% | 0.05% | 0.18% |
| 17 | North Melbourne | Essendon | North Melbourne | 41.18% | 2.91% | 55.91% |
| 17 | Adelaide | Gold Coast | Adelaide | 0.04% | 0.01% | 99.94% |
| 17 | Geelong | Geelong | St Kilda | 99.81% | 0.04% | 0.15% |
| 17 | GWS Giants | Richmond | GWS Giants | 33.33% | 2.84% | 63.83% |
| 17 | Melbourne | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | 35.57% | 2.90% | 61.53% |
| 17 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Brisbane | 99.98% | 0.01% | 0.02% |
| 18 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Essendon | 99.88% | 0.03% | 0.09% |
| 18 | Richmond | Richmond | Port Adelaide | 56.53% | 3.05% | 40.42% |
| 18 | Carlton | Carlton | Gold Coast | 70.86% | 2.66% | 26.48% |
| 18 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Collingwood | 96.08% | 0.60% | 3.32% |
| 18 | North Melbourne | Brisbane | North Melbourne | 7.46% | 1.05% | 91.49% |
| 18 | Sydney | Fremantle | Sydney | 0.31% | 0.08% | 99.61% |
| 18 | Geelong | Geelong | Hawthorn | 94.62% | 0.79% | 4.59% |
| 18 | Melbourne | Melbourne | West Coast | 52.53% | 2.98% | 44.49% |
| 18 | St Kilda | St Kilda | Western Bulldogs | 55.94% | 3.05% | 41.01% |
| 19 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Richmond | 60.31% | 2.92% | 36.77% |
| 19 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Brisbane | 99.95% | 0.01% | 0.04% |
| 19 | Adelaide | Carlton | Adelaide | 0.08% | 0.02% | 99.90% |
| 19 | West Coast | West Coast | North Melbourne | 95.64% | 0.65% | 3.71% |
| 19 | Melbourne | St Kilda | Melbourne | 22.28% | 2.27% | 75.45% |
| 19 | GWS Giants | Port Adelaide | GWS Giants | 46.86% | 3.08% | 50.06% |
| 19 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | Fremantle | 97.09% | 0.49% | 2.42% |
| 19 | Sydney | Sydney | Geelong | 66.76% | 2.82% | 30.41% |
| 19 | Essendon | Gold Coast | Essendon | 19.67% | 2.16% | 78.17% |
| 20 | Hawthorn | North Melbourne | Hawthorn | 43.12% | 2.97% | 53.92% |
| 20 | Port Adelaide | Essendon | Port Adelaide | 12.65% | 1.65% | 85.69% |
| 20 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Sydney | 62.49% | 2.93% | 34.58% |
| 20 | Geelong | Fremantle | Geelong | 0.22% | 0.06% | 99.72% |
| 20 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Richmond | 74.67% | 2.35% | 22.98% |
| 20 | Adelaide | Adelaide | St Kilda | 99.77% | 0.05% | 0.18% |
| 20 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Gold Coast | 99.85% | 0.03% | 0.12% |
| 20 | West Coast | Carlton | West Coast | 0.46% | 0.12% | 99.42% |
| 20 | Western Bulldogs | Brisbane | Western Bulldogs | 11.95% | 1.54% | 86.51% |
| 21 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Hawthorn | 91.28% | 1.15% | 7.57% |
| 21 | Melbourne | Melbourne | Collingwood | 82.78% | 1.83% | 15.39% |
| 21 | Sydney | Port Adelaide | Sydney | 39.46% | 3.08% | 57.46% |
| 21 | Brisbane | Brisbane | Gold Coast | 79.48% | 1.99% | 18.53% |
| 21 | Essendon | Essendon | Western Bulldogs | 49.12% | 3.09% | 47.79% |
| 21 | Geelong | Geelong | North Melbourne | 99.04% | 0.18% | 0.78% |
| 21 | St Kilda | St Kilda | Fremantle | 94.53% | 0.81% | 4.67% |
| 21 | Richmond | Richmond | Carlton | 99.87% | 0.03% | 0.10% |
| 21 | West Coast | West Coast | Adelaide | 52.93% | 2.94% | 44.14% |
| 22 | Sydney | Melbourne | Sydney | 30.93% | 2.75% | 66.32% |
| 22 | St Kilda | Carlton | St Kilda | 17.18% | 2.07% | 80.75% |
| 22 | Geelong | Brisbane | Geelong | 0.05% | 0.01% | 99.94% |
| 22 | Adelaide | Adelaide | Collingwood | 97.25% | 0.43% | 2.32% |
| 22 | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne | Port Adelaide | 34.43% | 2.84% | 62.74% |
| 22 | Essendon | Fremantle | Essendon | 34.62% | 2.89% | 62.49% |
| 22 | West Coast | Richmond | West Coast | 47.25% | 3.09% | 49.67% |
| 22 | GWS Giants | GWS Giants | Western Bulldogs | 98.57% | 0.26% | 1.17% |
| 22 | Hawthorn | Hawthorn | Gold Coast | 99.96% | 0.01% | 0.03% |
| 23 | Melbourne | North Melbourne | Melbourne | 42.93% | 2.90% | 54.17% |
| 23 | Richmond | Richmond | Brisbane | 99.91% | 0.02% | 0.07% |
| 23 | GWS Giants | Gold Coast | GWS Giants | 0.09% | 0.03% | 99.88% |
| 23 | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | Fremantle | 99.87% | 0.03% | 0.10% |
| 23 | West Coast | West Coast | Hawthorn | 83.80% | 1.81% | 14.39% |
| 23 | Geelong | Geelong | Carlton | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Adelaide | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide | 9.68% | 1.36% | 88.96% |
| 23 | Collingwood | Collingwood | Essendon | 94.59% | 0.77% | 4.64% |
| 23 | Sydney | Sydney | St Kilda | 99.72% | 0.06% | 0.22% |
Current match fixtures data from: fixturedownload.com
Historical match results data from: Australia Sports Betting
