From wikipedia:
"A back-of-the-envelope calculation is a rough calculation, typically jotted down on any available scrap of paper such as the actual back of an envelope. It is more than a guess but less than an accurate calculation or mathematical proof."
Instead of coming up with a single-value estimate, this app generates distribution and draws interval covering 95% of the distribution. As an input, it takes a function that computes a quantity to estimate. Each argument of this function is specified by its distribution. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to come up with a distribution of the output quantity.
This software is similar to https://github.com/getguesstimate/guesstimate-app, but simpler, uses python and has programmatic interface instead of graphical.
- python3
- numpy
- matplotlib
Use as a commandline tool
python gst.py ./default_model.py
Copy and modify ./default_model.py.
Run with your modified file. Profit?
This model estimates GDP of Russia as GDP=pfs/60, where p is population, f is fraction of income receiving citizens, s is annual income in RUB. "/60" converts RUB to USD.
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