This repository contains data, model file and scripts for estimating the Finnish population in 1647-1850 as in paper Voutilainen, Helske, Högmander (2020), A Bayesian reconstruction of a historical population in Finland 1647-1850, Demography.
The final model is defined in file population_model.stan and the corresponding R script is in population_model.R. File results.R was used to store necessary data for figures, and it also contains codes for the summary statistics presented in the paper. The codes for drawing the figures are in file bw_figures.R. Note that the main output file fit_population_model.R from the modelling is not available at Github as the file size is over 80GB. However, the posterior samples of time-invariant hyperparameters are in file theta.rds, and the mean estiamtes as well as the limits of the 95% posterior interval are available in files summary_*.rds for mean process mu and correction coefficients lambda. Summary of time-invariant hyperparameters theta can be found from summary_stats.txt, and bigger versions of the paper figures can be found from files Fig*_big.pdf.
