hariprasath-v / AV-job-a-thon-november-2022

Build a machine learning/deep learning approach to forecast the total energy demand on an hourly basis for the next 3 years based on past trends.

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AV-job-a-thon-november-2022

Competition hosted on Analyticsvidhya

About

Build a machine learning/deep learning approach to forecast the total energy demand on an hourly basis for the next 3 years based on past trends.

Initially, I thought a machine learning approach itself was enough to handle any time-series-based problem but this competition has proved that I was totally wrong.

In one of the previous time-series-based competitions, I used the boosting regressor model and it gave me a good leaderboard rank. I tried the same approach in this competition and it become a major blunder and had given the worst rank in the private leaderboard.

The machine learning-based approach didn't learn signals or patterns from the train data, the model learned only noise from the data.

Finally, for this problem, the boosting algorithm well performed on the train data and failed to generalize on the test data(Overfitting!).

I tried the seasonal decomposing linear model and it performed better than the boosting model.

Final Competition score is 583.858113004428

Leaderboard Rank is 207

Evaluation Metric is RMSE.

File information

  • av-job-a-thon-november-2022-eda.ipynb Open in Kaggle

    Basic Exploratory Data Analysis

    Packages Used,

     * seaborn
     * Pandas
     * Numpy
     * Matplotlib
    
  • av-job-a-thon-november-2022-model.ipynb Open in Kaggle

    Data Pre-processing and model.

    Packages Used,

      * Sklearn
      * Pandas
      * Numpy
      * Matplotlib
      * Lightgbm
      * shap
    

    Created light gradient boosting regressor model and evaluated with RMSE.

Lightgbm Model Feature Importances

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SHAP Lightgbm Model Feature Importances

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SHAP Top feature impact the model

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SHAP Top feature influences the single observation

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Energry Demand for Next 3 Years

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About

Build a machine learning/deep learning approach to forecast the total energy demand on an hourly basis for the next 3 years based on past trends.

License:Apache License 2.0


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