This is the Project GIT for the Fruitpunch AI COVID-19 challenge. Want to Join or colaborate? Please check: https://fruitpunch.ai/covid-19/ for more information.
Help us answer these questions: 🥝 At what point will our healthcare system break? 🍒 What is the impact on global health of this economic downturn?
First we will need to gain insight into the breaking points of our healthcare & supply systems so we can set up clear bench marks that flatten the curve. This is how we prevent a breakdown of our healthcare system. To this end we’re going to do a descriptive analysis of the infection & death rates in different affected countries and look at healthcare capacities.
Second, we are going to look at the greater effects of the corona pandemic. Historic data shows an economic recession has even more dire effects on global health than this virus due to joblessness, debt and less of access to proficient care.
The 26th of March we will start our joint challenge with Omdena, find the challenge description here: Omdena + FruitPunch AI – AI pandemic
🍉 infection rate (R0) of the common flu is 1.3, giving 146 infections after 20 contaminations, covid-19 has an R0 of ~2.5, resulting in 36 million infections in the same timespan!
🍎 death rate of the flu is 0.1% and of covid-19 1.6%, resulting to current estimates of 10 to 100 times more deaths than the flu globally, aka 5 to 50 million people!
🍊 biggest threat now: a collapse of the healthcare system due to overloading – there’s only beds for about 0.28% of our population, we need to slow the infection now.
🥥 solution: a swift and common community response is the only way we can contain this virus, by cancelling events, limiting social contact (especially with at-risk groups like your grandparents or other people’s children) and of course abiding by the hygiene guidelines.
Source: Fast.ai
📉 Indicator: the stock markets have fallen an average of 20% over the last month – affecting the tech-market with a 25% drop – indicating a next recession. https://www.google.com/finance#wptab=s:H4sIAAAAAAAAAOPQeMSozC3w8sc9YSmpSWtOXmMU4RJyy8xLzEtO9UnMS8nMSw9ITE_l2cXEG-4f5OMS7-sY5O0aEryIlT0NogoAAE2qJkIAAAA
🥊 Implications: an economic recession can increase death rates by as much as 8%, where the worst-case scenario of covid-19 would kill ~1% (see last post). https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30409-7/fulltext
🌏 Context: a recession has been expected to arrive this year, with national debts ballooning and countries (like Italy!) already fighting off a recession for years. https://www.ft.com/content/c789f080-6203-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9
☀️ On the bright side: even though covid-19 is affecting supply and demand there are little indicators of a broken market like before the 2008 recession. Tech stocks have been astronomically high and are facing a downturn, but this could be the reality check they needed to avoid a bubble. https://www.ft.com/content/c789f080-6203-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9
💪 Solution: invest in your long-term prosperity by taking the pandemic serious now but keep working remote, read up on effective remote-working methods and don’t step into the vicious cycle of selling off and cancelling deals. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescoachescouncil/2018/05/30/top-15-tips-to-effectively-manage-remote-employees/