This is an experiment on predicting wave buoy readings with an interest in the relationship between weather station readings and wave buoy readings.
The question is whether it is possible to learn a relationship between weather readings onshore that will have some skill in predicting wave buoy sensed data.
This project is an experiment in using a simple network architecture to explore the potential for modelling such data.
Wave data is available from:
https://data.qld.gov.au/dataset?q=Coastal%20Data%20System%20–%20Waves Field names are;
- Hs - Significant wave height, an average of the highest third of the waves in a record (26.6 minute recording period).
- Hmax - The maximum wave height in the record.
- Tz - The zero upcrossing wave period.
- Tp - The peak energy wave period.
- Dir_Tp TRUE - Direction (related to true north) from which the peak period waves are coming from.
- SST - Approximation of sea surface temperature.
Currently in early phases the 5 target variables are the variables of interest.
The following wave buoy were selected.
- caloundra
- mooloolaba
- brisbane
- moreton bay north
- gold coast
The climate station observation data is available from the BOM. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/datasets/datasets.shtml
- "redcliffe"
- "brisbane",
- "sunshine_coast_airport",
- "cape_moreton_lighthouse",
- "gold_coast_seaway"
The mappings of buoy to weather station is very rough, the correspondances are loosely based on proximity to the buoy from the weather station. These were:
waveSite climateSite
1 caloundra redcliffe
2 brisbane brisbane
3 mooloolaba sunshine_coast_airport
4 northmoretonbay cape_moreton_lighthouse
5 goldcoast gold_coast_seaway
From an initial exploration of the data there is a mild correlation between the sea surface temperature and the Pan Evaporation and Maximum Temperature readings from the weather station. There is a mild negative correlation between the average 10m windspeed readings at the site and the wave direction from true north (in completely different units) as well as the mean peak energy wave period and zero upcrossing wave period.
Several different methods of preprocessing and data arrangements will need to be attempted as well in as assessing the model skill in predicting the target variability in the wave buoy outputs.