akjayant / COVID19-Short-Term-Forecasting-and-Cluster-Analysis

Covid 19 cases Forecasting using ARIMA in India, US, Italy, Belgium & Patient data(anonymized) cluster analysis of India

COVID19 Data Analysis

1) Short Term Forecasting (3-9 days post training) for long term SEIR Models are better :

 Used ARIMA To predict/forecast numbers of COVID19 cases in INDIA, ITALY, USA, BELGIUM :
 #### Highlight -  (Trained till 29rd April and forecasting for next 7 days)
 example plot - 

India

Training -

Forecasting -

Forecasted Values -

*CI - (95% Confidence interval)

Date	Confirmed	Confirmed CI	Recovered	Recovered CI	Deaths	Deaths CI
2020-04-30	34876	[34561, 35192]	9080	[8983, 9178]	1144	[1132, 1157]
2020-05-01	36620	[36140, 37101]	9776	[9613, 9939]	1218	[1196, 1239]
2020-05-02	38439	[37773, 39104]	10467	[10197, 10736]	1287	[1255, 1319]
2020-05-03	40321	[39465, 41176]	11158	[10764, 11551]	1359	[1312, 1406]
2020-05-04	42163	[41081, 43245]	11879	[11354, 12403]	1433	[1372, 1493]
2020-05-05	44051	[42692, 45410]	12583	[11901, 13265]	1504	[1428, 1581]
2020-05-06	45933	[44309, 47557]	13314	[12470, 14158]	1580	[1486, 1673]
2020-05-07	47867	[45956, 49778]	14044	[13020, 15067]	1654	[1543, 1765]

Italy

Training -

Forecasting -

Forecasted Values -

Date	Confirmed	Confirmed CI	Recovered	Recovered CI	Deaths	Deaths CI
2020-04-30	205258	[204221, 206295]	73475	[72701, 74249]	28055	[27916, 28193]
2020-05-01	206931	[205345, 208518]	75644	[74179, 77109]	28456	[28218, 28695]
2020-05-02	208569	[206257, 210880]	77751	[75442, 80060]	28815	[28427, 29204]
2020-05-03	210322	[207262, 213382]	79801	[76566, 83037]	29157	[28574, 29740]
2020-05-04	212105	[208079, 216132]	81798	[77559, 86037]	29522	[28740, 30305]
2020-05-05	213845	[208595, 219096]	83743	[78442, 89044]	29892	[28906, 30877]
2020-05-06	215446	[208685, 222207]	85639	[79227, 92051]	30243	[29034, 31451]
2020-05-07	216910	[208442, 225377]	87489	[79924, 95053]	30589	[29139, 32039]

2) Cluster Analysis -

Download covid_19_*.html in ./interactive graph/

Data source - Incredible team of covid19india.org

 1) To check for patterns in sub-graphs if present in high number and longer/denser chain 
 may imply community transmission.

Highlight - 1 (Till 23rd April available details of ~1500 patients)

 2) State-wise analysis : to check whether there was transfer of infection from one state 
    to another due to travel or any other reasons

Highlight - 2 (Till 23rd April available details of ~1500 patients)

*Paired Analysis : Delhi-UP,Rajasthan-Gujarat,Maharashtra-MP, Kerala-Tamil Nadu results in ./images/ & ./interactive_graphs/