Opinionated list of resources facilitating model interpretability (introspection, simplification, visualization, explanation).
- Interpretable models
- Simple decision trees
- Rules
- (Regularized) linear regression
- k-NN
- (2008) Predictive learning via rule ensembles by Jerome H. Friedman, Bogdan E. Popescu
- (2014) Comprehensible classification models by Alex A. Freitas
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2594473.2594475
- http://www.kdd.org/exploration_files/V15-01-01-Freitas.pdf
- Interesting discussion of interpretability for a few classification models (decision trees, classification rules, decision tables, nearest neighbors and Bayesian network classifier)
- (2015) Interpretable classifiers using rules and Bayesian analysis: Building a better stroke prediction model by Benjamin Letham, Cynthia Rudin, Tyler H. McCormick, David Madigan
- (2017) Learning Explanatory Rules from Noisy Data by Richard Evans, Edward Grefenstette
- (2019) Transparent Classification with Multilayer Logical Perceptrons and Random Binarization by Zhuo Wang, Wei Zhang, Ning Liu, Jianyong Wang
- Models offering feature importance measures
- Random forest
- Boosted trees
- Extremely randomized trees
- (2006) Extremely randomized trees by Pierre Geurts, Damien Ernst, Louis Wehenkel
- Random ferns
- (2015) rFerns: An Implementation of the Random Ferns Method for General-Purpose Machine Learning by Miron B. Kursa
- Linear regression (with a grain of salt)
- (2007) Bias in random forest variable importance measures: Illustrations, sources and a solution by Carolin Strobl, Anne-Laure Boulesteix, Achim Zeileis, Torsten Hothorn
- (2008) Conditional Variable Importance for Random Forests by Carolin Strobl, Anne-Laure Boulesteix, Thomas Kneib, Thomas Augustin, Achim Zeileis
- (2018) Model Class Reliance: Variable Importance Measures for any Machine Learning Model Class, from the “Rashomon” Perspective by Aaron Fisher, Cynthia Rudin, Francesca Dominici
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.01489
- https://github.com/aaronjfisher/mcr
- Universal (model agnostic) variable importance measure
- (2019) Please Stop Permuting Features: An Explanation and Alternatives by Giles Hooker, Lucas Mentch
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.03151
- Paper advocating against feature permutation for importance
- (2018) Visualizing the Feature Importance for Black Box Models by Giuseppe Casalicchio, Christoph Molnar, Bernd Bischl
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.06620
- https://github.com/giuseppec/featureImportance
- Global and local (model agnostic) variable importance measure (based on Model Reliance)
- Very good blog post describing deficiencies of random forest feature importance and the permutation importance
- Permutation importance - simple model agnostic approach is described in Eli5 documentation
- Classification of feature selection methods
- Filters
- Wrappers
- Embedded methods
- (2003) An Introduction to Variable and Feature Selection by Isabelle Guyon, André Elisseeff
- http://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume3/guyon03a/guyon03a.pdf
- Be sure to read this very illustrative introduction to feature selection
- Filter Methods
- (2006) On the Use of Variable Complementarity for Feature Selection in Cancer Classification by Patrick Meyer, Gianluca Bontempi
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/11732242_9
- https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d72f/f5063520ce4542d6d9b9e6a4f12aafab6091.pdf
- Introduces information theoretic methods - double input symmetrical relevance (DISR)
- (2012) Conditional Likelihood Maximisation: A Unifying Framework for Information Theoretic Feature Selection by Gavin Brown, Adam Pocock, Ming-Jie Zhao, Mikel Luján
- http://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume13/brown12a/brown12a.pdf
- Code: https://github.com/Craigacp/FEAST
- Discusses various approaches based on mutual information (MIM, mRMR, MIFS, CMIM, JMI, DISR, ICAP, CIFE, CMI)
- (2012) Feature selection via joint likelihood by Adam Pocock
- (2017) Relief-Based Feature Selection: Introduction and Review by Ryan J. Urbanowicz, Melissa Meeker, William LaCava, Randal S. Olson, Jason H. Moore
- (2017) Benchmarking Relief-Based Feature Selection Methods for Bioinformatics Data Mining by Ryan J. Urbanowicz, Randal S. Olson, Peter Schmitt, Melissa Meeker, Jason H. Moore
- (2006) On the Use of Variable Complementarity for Feature Selection in Cancer Classification by Patrick Meyer, Gianluca Bontempi
- Wrapper methods
- (2015) Feature Selection with theBorutaPackage by Miron B. Kursa, Witold R. Rudnicki
- Boruta for those in a hurry
- General
- (1994) Irrelevant Features and the Subset Selection Problem by George John, Ron Kohavi, Karl Pfleger
- https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a83b/ddb34618cc68f1014ca12eef7f537825d104.pdf
- Classic paper discussing weakly relevant features, irrelevant features, strongly relevant features
- (2003) Special issue of JMLR of feature selection - oldish (2003)
- (2004) Result Analysis of the NIPS 2003 Feature Selection Challenge by Isabelle Guyon, Steve Gunn, Asa Ben-Hur, Gideon Dror
- (2007) Consistent Feature Selection for Pattern Recognition in Polynomial Time by Roland Nilsson, José Peña, Johan Björkegren, Jesper Tegnér
- http://www.jmlr.org/papers/volume8/nilsson07a/nilsson07a.pdf
- Discusses minimal optimal vs all-relevant approaches to feature selection
- (1994) Irrelevant Features and the Subset Selection Problem by George John, Ron Kohavi, Karl Pfleger
- Feature Engineering and Selection by Kuhn & Johnson
- Sligtly off-topic, but very interesting book
- http://www.feat.engineering/index.html
- https://bookdown.org/max/FES/
- https://github.com/topepo/FES
- Feature Engineering presentation by H. J. van Veen
- Slightly off-topicm but very interesting deck of slides
- Slides: https://www.slideshare.net/HJvanVeen/feature-engineering-72376750
- Magnets by R. P. Feynman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMFPe-DwULM
- (2002) Looking Inside the Black Box, presentation of Leo Breiman
- (2011) To Explain or to Predict? by Galit Shmueli
- (2016) The Mythos of Model Interpretability by Zachary C. Lipton
- (2017) Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning by Finale Doshi-Velez, Been Kim
- (2017) The Promise and Peril of Human Evaluation for Model Interpretability by Bernease Herman
- (2018) The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl
- (2018) Please Stop Doing the “Explainable” ML by Cynthia Rudin
- Video (starts 17:30, lasts 10 min): https://zoom.us/recording/play/0y-iI9HamgyDzzP2k_jiTu6jB7JgVVXnjWZKDMbnyRTn3FsxTDZy6Wkrj3_ekx4J
- Linked at: https://users.cs.duke.edu/~cynthia/mediatalks.html
- (2018) Explaining Explanations: An Approach to Evaluating Interpretability of Machine Learning by Leilani H. Gilpin, David Bau, Ben Z. Yuan, Ayesha Bajwa, Michael Specter, Lalana Kagal
- (2019) Interpretable machine learning: definitions, methods, and applications by W. James Murdoch, Chandan Singh, Karl Kumbier, Reza Abbasi-Asl, Bin Yu
- (2019) On Explainable Machine Learning Misconceptions A More Human-Centered Machine Learning by Patrick Hall
- (2019) An Introduction to Machine Learning Interpretability. An Applied Perspective on Fairness, Accountability, Transparency, and Explainable AI by Patrick Hall and Navdeep Gill
- (2009) How to Explain Individual Classification Decisions by David Baehrens, Timon Schroeter, Stefan Harmeling, Motoaki Kawanabe, Katja Hansen, Klaus-Robert Mueller
- (2013) Peeking Inside the Black Box: Visualizing Statistical Learning with Plots of Individual Conditional Expectation by Alex Goldstein, Adam Kapelner, Justin Bleich, Emil Pitkin
- (2016) “Why Should I Trust You?”: Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier by Marco Tulio Ribeiro, Sameer Singh, Carlos Guestrin
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.04938
- Code: https://github.com/marcotcr/lime
- https://github.com/marcotcr/lime-experiments
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCgEP2zuYxI
- Introduces the LIME method (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations)
- (2016) A Model Explanation System: Latest Updates and Extensions by Ryan Turner
- (2017) Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions by Pang Wei Koh, Percy Liang
- (2017) A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions by Scott Lundberg, Su-In Lee
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.07874
- Code: https://github.com/slundberg/shap
- Introduces the SHAP method (SHapley Additive exPlanations), generalizing LIME
- (2018) Anchors: High-Precision Model-Agnostic Explanations by Marco Ribeiro, Sameer Singh, Carlos Guestrin
- (2018) Learning to Explain: An Information-Theoretic Perspective on Model Interpretation by Jianbo Chen, Le Song, Martin J. Wainwright, Michael I. Jordan
- (2018) Explanations of model predictions with live and breakDown packages by Mateusz Staniak, Przemyslaw Biecek
- (2018) A review book - Interpretable Machine Learning. A Guide for Making Black Box Models Explainable by Christoph Molnar
- (2018) Stop Explaining Black Box Machine Learning Models for High Stakes Decisions and Use Interpretable Models Instead by Cynthia Rudin
- (2019) Quantifying Interpretability of Arbitrary Machine Learning Models Through Functional Decomposition by Christoph Molnar, Giuseppe Casalicchio, Bernd Bischl
- (2013) Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks by Matthew D Zeiler, Rob Fergus
- (2013) Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps by Karen Simonyan, Andrea Vedaldi, Andrew Zisserman
- (2015) Understanding Neural Networks Through Deep Visualization by Jason Yosinski, Jeff Clune, Anh Nguyen, Thomas Fuchs, Hod Lipson
- (2016) Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization by Ramprasaath R. Selvaraju, Michael Cogswell, Abhishek Das, Ramakrishna Vedantam, Devi Parikh, Dhruv Batra
- (2016) Generating Visual Explanations by Lisa Anne Hendricks, Zeynep Akata, Marcus Rohrbach, Jeff Donahue, Bernt Schiele, Trevor Darrell
- (2016) Rationalizing Neural Predictions by Tao Lei, Regina Barzilay, Tommi Jaakkola
- (2016) Gradients of Counterfactuals by Mukund Sundararajan, Ankur Taly, Qiqi Yan
- Pixel entropy can be used to detect relevant picture regions (for CovNets)
- See Visualization section and Fig. 5 of the paper
- (2017) High-Resolution Breast Cancer Screening with Multi-View Deep Convolutional Neural Networks by Krzysztof J. Geras, Stacey Wolfson, Yiqiu Shen, Nan Wu, S. Gene Kim, Eric Kim, Laura Heacock, Ujas Parikh, Linda Moy, Kyunghyun Cho
- See Visualization section and Fig. 5 of the paper
- (2017) SVCCA: Singular Vector Canonical Correlation Analysis for Deep Learning Dynamics and Interpretability by Maithra Raghu, Justin Gilmer, Jason Yosinski, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein
- (2017) Visual Explanation by Interpretation: Improving Visual Feedback Capabilities of Deep Neural Networks by Jose Oramas, Kaili Wang, Tinne Tuytelaars
- (2017) Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks by Mukund Sundararajan, Ankur Taly, Qiqi Yan
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.01365
- Code: https://github.com/ankurtaly/Integrated-Gradients
- Proposes Integrated Gradients Method
- See also: Gradients of Counterfactuals https://arxiv.org/pdf/1611.02639.pdf
- (2017) Learning Important Features Through Propagating Activation Differences by Avanti Shrikumar, Peyton Greenside, Anshul Kundaje
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.02685
- Proposes Deep Lift method
- Code: https://github.com/kundajelab/deeplift
- Videos: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJLjQOkqSRTP3cLB2cOOi_bQFw6KPGKML
- (2017) The (Un)reliability of saliency methods by Pieter-Jan Kindermans, Sara Hooker, Julius Adebayo, Maximilian Alber, Kristof T. Schütt, Sven Dähne, Dumitru Erhan, Been Kim
- https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.0867
- Review of failures for methods extracting most important pixels for prediction
- (2018) Classifier-agnostic saliency map extraction by Konrad Zolna, Krzysztof J. Geras, Kyunghyun Cho
- (2018) A Benchmark for Interpretability Methods in Deep Neural Networks by Sara Hooker, Dumitru Erhan, Pieter-Jan Kindermans, Been Kim
- (2018) The Building Blocks of Interpretability by Chris Olah, Arvind Satyanarayan, Ian Johnson, Shan Carter, Ludwig Schubert, Katherine Ye, Alexander Mordvintsev
- https://dx.doi.org/10.23915/distill.00010
- Has some embeded links to notebooks
- Uses Lucid library https://github.com/tensorflow/lucid
- (2018) Hierarchical interpretations for neural network predictions by Chandan Singh, W. James Murdoch, Bin Yu
- (2018) iNNvestigate neural networks! by Maximilian Alber, Sebastian Lapuschkin, Philipp Seegerer, Miriam Hägele, Kristof T. Schütt, Grégoire Montavon, Wojciech Samek, Klaus-Robert Müller, Sven Dähne, Pieter-Jan Kindermans
- (2018) YASENN: Explaining Neural Networks via Partitioning Activation Sequences by Yaroslav Zharov, Denis Korzhenkov, Pavel Shvechikov, Alexander Tuzhilin
- (2019) Attention is not Explanation by Sarthak Jain, Byron C. Wallace
- (2019) Attention Interpretability Across NLP Tasks by Shikhar Vashishth, Shyam Upadhyay, Gaurav Singh Tomar, Manaal Faruqui
- (2019) GRACE: Generating Concise and Informative Contrastive Sample to Explain Neural Network Model’s Prediction by Thai Le, Suhang Wang, Dongwon Lee
- (2017) Extracting Automata from Recurrent Neural Networks Using Queries and Counterexamples by Gail Weiss, Yoav Goldberg, Eran Yahav
- (2017) Distilling a Neural Network Into a Soft Decision Tree by Nicholas Frosst, Geoffrey Hinton
- (2017) Detecting Bias in Black-Box Models Using Transparent Model Distillation by Sarah Tan, Rich Caruana, Giles Hooker, Yin Lou
- Visualizing Statistical Models: Removing the blindfold
- Partial dependence plots
- http://scikit-learn.org/stable/auto_examples/ensemble/plot_partial_dependence.html
- pdp: An R Package for Constructing Partial Dependence Plots https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2017/RJ-2017-016/RJ-2017-016.pdf https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pdp/index.html
- ggfortify: Unified Interface to Visualize Statistical Results of Popular R Packages
- RandomForestExplainer
- ggRandomForest
- Tutorial on Interpretable machine learning at ICML 2017
- P. Biecek, Show Me Your Model - Tools for Visualisation of Statistical Models
- S. Ritchie, Just-So Stories of AI
- C. Jarmul, Towards Interpretable Accountable Models
- I. Oszvald, Machine Learning Libraries You’d Wish You’d Known About
- A large part of the talk covers model explanation and visualization
- Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDF7_8FOhpI
- Associated notebook on explaining regression predictions: https://github.com/ianozsvald/data_science_delivered/blob/master/ml_explain_regression_prediction.ipynb
- G. Varoquaux, Understanding and diagnosing your machine-learning models (covers PDP and Lime among others)
- Interpretable ML Symposium (NIPS 2017) (contains links to papers, slides and videos)
- http://interpretable.ml/
- Debate, Interpretability is necessary in machine learning
- Workshop on Human Interpretability in Machine Learning (WHI), organised in conjunction with ICML
- 2018 (contains links to papers and slides)
- 2017 (contains links to papers and slides)
- 2016 (contains links to papers)
- Analyzing and interpreting neural networks for NLP (BlackboxNLP), organised in conjunction with EMNLP
- 2019 (links below may get prefixed by 2019 later on)
- https://blackboxnlp.github.io/
- https://blackboxnlp.github.io/program.html
- Papers should be available on arXiv
- 2018
- 2019 (links below may get prefixed by 2019 later on)
- FAT/ML Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Machine Learning https://www.fatml.org/
- 2018
- 2017
- 2016
- 2016
- 2015
- 2014
- AAAI/ACM Annual Conferenceon AI, Ethics, and Society
- 2019 (links below may get prefixed by 2019 later on)
- 2018
Software related to papers is mentioned along with each publication. Here only standalone software is included.
- DALEX - R package, Descriptive mAchine Learning EXplanations
- ELI5 - Python package dedicated to debugging machine learning classifiers and explaining their predictions
- forestmodel - R package visualizing coefficients of different models with the so called forest plot
- fscaret - R package with automated Feature Selection from ‘caret’
- iml - R package for Interpretable Machine Learning
- interpret - Python package package for training interpretable models and explaining blackbox systems by Microsoft
- lime - R package implementing LIME
- lofo-importance - Python package feature importance by Leave One Feature Out Importance method
- Lucid - a collection of infrastructure and tools for research in neural network interpretability
- praznik - R package with a collection of feature selection filters performing greedy optimisation of mutual information-based usefulness criteria, see JMLR 13, 27−66 (2012)
- yellowbrick - Python package offering visual analysis and diagnostic tools to facilitate machine learning model selection
- Awesome list of resources by Patrick Hall
- Awesome XAI resources by Przemysław Biecek
- [Awesome Uncertainty in Deep learning](#awesome-uncertainty-in-deep-learning)
- [Papers](#papers)
- [Surveys](#surveys)
- [Theory](#theory)
- [Bayesian-Methods](#bayesian-methods)
- [Ensemble-Methods](#ensemble-methods)
- [Sampling/Dropout-based-Methods](#samplingdropout-based-methods)
- [Post-hoc-Methods/Auxiliary-Networks](#post-hoc-methodsauxiliary-networks)
- [Data-augmentation/Generation-based-methods](#data-augmentationgeneration-based-methods)
- [Output-Space-Modeling/Evidential-deep-learning](#output-space-modelingevidential-deep-learning)
- [Deterministic-Uncertainty-Methods](#deterministic-uncertainty-methods)
- [Quantile-Regression/Predicted-Intervals](#quantile-regressionpredicted-intervals)
- [Conformal Predictions](#conformal-predictions)
- [Calibration/Evaluation-Metrics](#calibrationevaluation-metrics)
- [Applications](#applications)
- [Classification and Semantic-Segmentation](#classification-and-semantic-segmentation)
- [Regression](#regression)
- [Anomaly-detection, Out-of-Distribution-Detection and Failure detection](#anomaly-detection-out-of-distribution-detection-and-failure-detection)
- [Object detection](#object-detection)
- [Domain adaptation](#domain-adaptation)
- [Semi-supervised](#semi-supervised)
- [Natural Language Processing](#natural-language-processing)
- [Others](#others)
- [Datasets and Benchmarks](#datasets-and-benchmarks)
- [Libraries](#libraries)
- [Python](#python)
- [PyTorch](#pytorch)
- [JAX](#jax)
- [TensorFlow](#tensorflow)
- [Lectures and tutorials](#lectures-and-tutorials)
- [Books](#books)
- [Other Resources](#other-resources)
## Surveys
**Conference**
- A Comparison of Uncertainty Estimation Approaches in Deep Learning Components for Autonomous Vehicle Applications AISafety Workshop 2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15172)
**Journal**
- A survey of uncertainty in deep neural networks Artificial Intelligence Review 2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.03342) - GitHub(https://github.com/JakobCode/UncertaintyInNeuralNetworks_Resources)
- Prior and Posterior Networks: A Survey on Evidential Deep Learning Methods For Uncertainty Estimation TMLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03051)
- A Survey on Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning Classification Systems from a Bayesian Perspective ACM2021(https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3477140?casa_token=6fozCYTovlIAAAAA:t5vcjuXCMem1b8iFwaMG4o_YJHTe0wArLtoy9KCbL8Cow0aGEoxSiJans2Kzpm2FSKOg-4ZCDkBa)
- Ensemble deep learning: A review Engineering Applications of AI 2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.02395)
- A review of uncertainty quantification in deep learning: Techniques, applications and challenges Information Fusion 2021(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566253521001081)
- Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning: an introduction to concepts and methods Machine Learning 2021(https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10994-021-05946-3)
- Predictive inference with the jackknife+ The Annals of Statistics 2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.02928)
- Uncertainty in big data analytics: survey, opportunities, and challenges Journal of Big Data 2019(https://journalofbigdata.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40537-019-0206-3?cv=1)
**Arxiv**
- Benchmarking Uncertainty Disentanglement: Specialized Uncertainties for Specialized Tasks ArXiv2024(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.19460.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/bmucsanyi/bud/tree/main)
- A System-Level View on Out-of-Distribution Data in Robotics arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.14020)
- A Survey on Uncertainty Reasoning and Quantification for Decision Making: Belief Theory Meets Deep Learning arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.05675)
## Theory
**Conference**
- Towards Understanding Ensemble, Knowledge Distillation and Self-Distillation in Deep Learning ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.09816.pdf)
- Unmasking the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis: What’s Encoded in a Winning Ticket’s Mask? ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.03044.pdf)
- Probabilistic Contrastive Learning Recovers the Correct Aleatoric Uncertainty of Ambiguous Inputs ICML2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.02865.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning)
- On Second-Order Scoring Rules for Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification ICML2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.12736.pdf)
- Neural Variational Gradient Descent AABI2022(https://openreview.net/forum?id=oG0vTBw58ic)
- Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductions ICLR2022(https://openreview.net/forum?id=WqoBaaPHS-)
- Bayesian Model Selection, the Marginal Likelihood, and Generalization ICML2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11678)
- With malice towards none: Assessing uncertainty via equalized coverage AIES 2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.05428)
- Uncertainty in Gradient Boosting via Ensembles ICLR2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.10562) - PyTorch(https://github.com/yandex-research/GBDT-uncertainty)
- Repulsive Deep Ensembles are Bayesian NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11642) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ratschlab/repulsive_ensembles)
- Bayesian Optimization with High-Dimensional Outputs NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.12997)
- Residual Pathway Priors for Soft Equivariance Constraints NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.01388)
- Dangers of Bayesian Model Averaging under Covariate Shift NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11905) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/izmailovpavel/bnn_covariate_shift)
- A Mathematical Analysis of Learning Loss for Active Learning in Regression CVPR Workshop2021(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2021W/TCV/html/Shukla_A_Mathematical_Analysis_of_Learning_Loss_for_Active_Learning_in_CVPRW_2021_paper.html)
- Deep Convolutional Networks as shallow Gaussian Processes ICLR2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.05587)
- On the accuracy of influence functions for measuring group effects NeurIPS2018(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/a78482ce76496fcf49085f2190e675b4-Abstract.html)
- To Trust Or Not To Trust A Classifier NeurIPS2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.11783) - Python(https://github.com/google/TrustScore)
- Understanding Measures of Uncertainty for Adversarial Example Detection UAI2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.08533)
**Journal**
- A Unified Theory of Diversity in Ensemble Learning JMLR2023(https://jmlr.org/papers/volume24/23-0041/23-0041.pdf)
- Multivariate Uncertainty in Deep Learning TNNLS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14215)
- A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning RAL2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.06890)
- Adaptive nonparametric confidence sets Ann. Statist. 2006(https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0605473)
**Arxiv**
- Ensembles for Uncertainty Estimation: Benefits of Prior Functions and Bootstrapping arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.03633.pdf)
- Efficient Gaussian Neural Processes for Regression arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.09676)
- Dense Uncertainty Estimation arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.06427) - PyTorch(https://github.com/JingZhang617/UncertaintyEstimation)
- A higher-order swiss army infinitesimal jackknife arXiv2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.12116)
## Bayesian-Methods
**Conference**
- A Symmetry-Aware Exploration of Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors ICLR2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.08287)
- Gradient-based Uncertainty Attribution for Explainable Bayesian Deep Learning CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.04824)
- Robustness to corruption in pre-trained Bayesian neural networks ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.12361.pdf)
- Beyond Deep Ensembles: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Bayesian Deep Learning under Distribution Shift NeurIPS2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12306) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Feuermagier/Beyond_Deep_Ensembles)
- Transformers Can Do Bayesian Inference ICLR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.10510) - PyTorch(https://github.com/automl/PFNs?tab=readme-ov-file)
- Uncertainty Estimation for Multi-view Data: The Power of Seeing the Whole Picture NeurIPS2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02676)
- On Batch Normalisation for Approximate Bayesian Inference AABI2021(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=SH2tfpm_0LE)
- Activation-level uncertainty in deep neural networks ICLR2021(https://openreview.net/forum?id=UvBPbpvHRj-)
- Laplace Redux – Effortless Bayesian Deep Learning NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14806) - PyTorch(https://github.com/AlexImmer/Laplace)
- On the Effects of Quantisation on Model Uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks UAI2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11062)
- Learnable uncertainty under Laplace approximations UAI2021(https://proceedings.mlr.press/v161/kristiadi21a.html)
- Bayesian Neural Networks with Soft Evidence ICML Workshop2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09570) - PyTorch(https://github.com/edwardyu/soft-evidence-bnn)
- TRADI: Tracking deep neural network weight distributions for uncertainty estimation ECCV2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11316) - PyTorch(https://github.com/giannifranchi/TRADI_Tracking_DNN_weights)
- How Good is the Bayes Posterior in Deep Neural Networks Really? ICML2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/wenzel20a.html)
- Efficient and Scalable Bayesian Neural Nets with Rank-1 Factors ICML2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/dusenberry20a/dusenberry20a.pdf) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/google/edward2)
- Being Bayesian, Even Just a Bit, Fixes Overconfidence in ReLU Networks ICML2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/kristiadi20a/kristiadi20a.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/AlexImmer/Laplace)
- Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/file/322f62469c5e3c7dc3e58f5a4d1ea399-Paper.pdf)
- A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.02476) - PyTorch(https://github.com/wjmaddox/swa_gaussian)
- Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation for Batch Normalized Deep Networks ICML2018(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v80/teye18a.html) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/icml-mcbn/mcbn) - TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
- Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networks CVPR2018(https://github.com/ezjong/lightprobnets) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ezjong/lightprobnets)
- A Scalable Laplace Approximation for Neural Networks ICLR2018(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=Skdvd2xAZ) - Theano(https://github.com/BB-UCL/Lasagne)
- Decomposition of Uncertainty in Bayesian Deep Learning for Efficient and Risk-sensitive Learning ICML2018(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v80/depeweg18a.html)
- Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks ICML2015(https://proceedings.mlr.press/v37/blundell15.html)
**Journal**
- Encoding the latent posterior of Bayesian Neural Networks for uncertainty quantification TPAMI2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.02818) - PyTorch(https://github.com/giannifranchi/LP_BNN)
- Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in low-level vision IJCV1990(https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00126502)
**Arxiv**
- Density Uncertainty Layers for Reliable Uncertainty Estimation arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.12497)
## Ensemble-Methods
**Conference**
- Model Ratatouille: Recycling Diverse Models for Out-of-Distribution Generalization ICML2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.10445.pdf)
- Bayesian Posterior Approximation With Stochastic Ensembles CVPR2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2023/papers/Balabanov_Bayesian_Posterior_Approximation_With_Stochastic_Ensembles_CVPR_2023_paper.pdf)
- Normalizing Flow Ensembles for Rich Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling AAAI2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.01312)
- Window-Based Early-Exit Cascades for Uncertainty Estimation: When Deep Ensembles are More Efficient than Single Models ICCV2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08010) - PyTorch(https://github.com/guoxoug/window-early-exit)
- Weighted Ensemble Self-Supervised Learning ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.09981.pdf)
- Agree to Disagree: Diversity through Disagreement for Better Transferability ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.04414.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mpagli/Agree-to-Disagree)
- Packed-Ensembles for Efficient Uncertainty Estimation ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.09184) - PyTorch/TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
- Sub-Ensembles for Fast Uncertainty Estimation in Neural Networks ICCV Workshop2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023W/LXCV/papers/Valdenegro-Toro_Sub-Ensembles_for_Fast_Uncertainty_Estimation_in_Neural_Networks_ICCVW_2023_paper.pdf)
- Prune and Tune Ensembles: Low-Cost Ensemble Learning With Sparse Independent Subnetworks AAAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.11782)
- Deep Ensembles Work, But Are They Necessary? NeurIPS2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.06985)
- FiLM-Ensemble: Probabilistic Deep Learning via Feature-wise Linear Modulation NeurIPS2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.00050)
- Deep Ensembling with No Overhead for either Training or Testing: The All-Round Blessings of Dynamic Sparsity ICLR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14568) - PyTorch(https://github.com/VITA-Group/FreeTickets)
- On the Usefulness of Deep Ensemble Diversity for Out-of-Distribution Detection ECCV Workshop2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.07517)
- Masksembles for Uncertainty Estimation CVPR2021(https://nikitadurasov.github.io/projects/masksembles/) - PyTorch/TensorFlow(https://github.com/nikitadurasov/masksembles)
- Robustness via Cross-Domain Ensembles ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.10919) - PyTorch(https://github.com/EPFL-VILAB/XDEnsembles)
- Uncertainty in Gradient Boosting via Ensembles ICLR2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.10562) - PyTorch(https://github.com/yandex-research/GBDT-uncertainty)
- Uncertainty Quantification and Deep Ensembles NeurIPS2021(https://openreview.net/forum?id=wg_kD_nyAF)
- Maximizing Overall Diversity for Improved Uncertainty Estimates in Deep Ensembles AAAI2020(https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/5849)
- Uncertainty in Neural Networks: Approximately Bayesian Ensembling AISTATS 2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.05546)
- Pitfalls of In-Domain Uncertainty Estimation and Ensembling in Deep Learning ICLR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.06470) - PyTorch(https://github.com/SamsungLabs/pytorch-ensembles)
- BatchEnsemble: An Alternative Approach to Efficient Ensemble and Lifelong Learning ICLR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.06715) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/google/edward2) - PyTorch(https://github.com/giannifranchi/LP_BNN)
- Hyperparameter Ensembles for Robustness and Uncertainty Quantification NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/481fbfa59da2581098e841b7afc122f1-Abstract.html)
- Bayesian Deep Ensembles via the Neural Tangent Kernel NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/0b1ec366924b26fc98fa7b71a9c249cf-Abstract.html)
- Diversity with Cooperation: Ensemble Methods for Few-Shot Classification ICCV2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.11341)
- Accurate Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition in Ensemble Learning NeurIPS2019(https://papers.nips.cc/paper/2019/hash/1cc8a8ea51cd0adddf5dab504a285915-Abstract.html)
- High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approach ICML2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07167) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/TeaPearce/Deep_Learning_Prediction_Intervals)
- Simple and scalable predictive uncertainty estimation using deep ensembles NeurIPS2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.01474) - TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
**Journal**
- One Versus all for deep Neural Network for uncertaInty (OVNNI) quantification IEEE Access2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00954)
**Arxiv**
- Split-Ensemble: Efficient OOD-aware Ensemble via Task and Model Splitting arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.09148)
- Deep Ensemble as a Gaussian Process Approximate Posterior arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.00163)
- Sequential Bayesian Neural Subnetwork Ensembles arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.00794)
- Confident Neural Network Regression with Bootstrapped Deep Ensembles arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.10903) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/LaurensSluyterman/Bootstrapped_Deep_Ensembles)
- Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent Variable Model arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.11055)
- Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective arXiv2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.02757)
## Sampling/Dropout-based-Methods
**Conference**
- Make Me a BNN: A Simple Strategy for Estimating Bayesian Uncertainty from Pre-trained Models CVPR2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.15297)
- Training-Free Uncertainty Estimation for Dense Regression: Sensitivity as a Surrogate AAAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.04858v3)
- Efficient Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation for nnU-Net MICCAI2022(https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-16452-1_51)
- Dropout Sampling for Robust Object Detection in Open-Set Conditions ICRA2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.06677)
- Test-time data augmentation for estimation of heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty in deep neural networks MIDL2018(https://openreview.net/forum?id=rJZz-knjz)
- Concrete Dropout NeurIPS2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07832)
- Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning ICML2016(https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.02142) - TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
**Journal**
- A General Framework for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning Robotics and Automation Letters2020(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06890.pdf)
**Arxiv**
- SoftDropConnect (SDC) – Effective and Efficient Quantification of the Network Uncertainty in Deep MR Image Analysis arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.08418)
## Post-hoc-Methods/Auxiliary-Networks
**Conference**
- Discretization-Induced Dirichlet Posterior for Robust Uncertainty Quantification on Regression AAAI2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.09065) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/DIDO)
- Post-hoc Uncertainty Learning using a Dirichlet Meta-Model AAAI2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.07359) - PyTorch(https://github.com/maohaos2/PosthocUQ)
- ProbVLM: Probabilistic Adapter for Frozen Vision-Language Models ICCV2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023/html/Upadhyay_ProbVLM_Probabilistic_Adapter_for_Frozen_Vison-Language_Models_ICCV_2023_paper.html)
- Out-of-Distribution Detection for Monocular Depth Estimation ICCV2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.06072)
- Detecting Misclassification Errors in Neural Networks with a Gaussian Process Model AAAI2022(https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/20773)
- Learning Structured Gaussians to Approximate Deep Ensembles CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15485)
- Improving the reliability for confidence estimation ECCV2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.06776)
- Gradient-based Uncertainty for Monocular Depth Estimation ECCV2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.02005) - PyTorch(https://github.com/jhornauer/GrUMoDepth)
- BayesCap: Bayesian Identity Cap for Calibrated Uncertainty in Frozen Neural Networks ECCV2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.06873) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ExplainableML/BayesCap)
- Learning Uncertainty For Safety-Oriented Semantic Segmentation In Autonomous Driving ICIP2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.13688)
- SLURP: Side Learning Uncertainty for Regression Problems BMVC2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.02395) - PyTorch(https://github.com/xuanlongORZ/SLURP_uncertainty_estimate)
- Triggering Failures: Out-Of-Distribution detection by learning from local adversarial attacks in Semantic Segmentation ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.01634) - PyTorch(https://github.com/valeoai/obsnet)
- Learning to Predict Error for MRI Reconstruction MICCAI2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05582)
- A Mathematical Analysis of Learning Loss for Active Learning in Regression CVPR Workshop2021(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2021W/TCV/html/Shukla_A_Mathematical_Analysis_of_Learning_Loss_for_Active_Learning_in_CVPRW_2021_paper.html)
- Real-time uncertainty estimation in computer vision via uncertainty-aware distribution distillation WACV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.15857)
- On the uncertainty of self-supervised monocular depth estimation CVPR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06209) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mattpoggi/mono-uncertainty)
- Quantifying Point-Prediction Uncertainty in Neural Networks via Residual Estimation with an I/O Kernel ICLR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.00588) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/cognizant-ai-labs/rio-paper)
- Gradients as a Measure of Uncertainty in Neural Networks ICIP2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08030)
- Learning Loss for Test-Time Augmentation NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/2ba596643cbbbc20318224181fa46b28-Abstract.html)
- Learning loss for active learning CVPR2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.03677) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Mephisto405/Learning-Loss-for-Active-Learning) (unofficial codes)
- Addressing failure prediction by learning model confidence NeurIPS2019(https://papers.NeurIPS.cc/paper/2019/file/757f843a169cc678064d9530d12a1881-Paper.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/valeoai/ConfidNet)
- Structured Uncertainty Prediction Networks CVPR2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07079) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/Era-Dorta/tf_mvg)
- Classification uncertainty of deep neural networks based on gradient information IAPR Workshop2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08440)
**Journal**
- Towards More Reliable Confidence Estimation TPAMI2023(https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10172026/)
- Confidence Estimation via Auxiliary Models TPAMI2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06508)
**Arxiv**
- Instance-Aware Observer Network for Out-of-Distribution Object Segmentation arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.08782)
- DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.08501)
- Learning Confidence for Out-of-Distribution Detection in Neural Networks arXiv2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04865)
## Data-augmentation/Generation-based-methods
**Conference**
- Learning to Generate Training Datasets for Robust Semantic Segmentation WACV2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.02535)
- OpenMix: Exploring Outlier Samples for Misclassification Detection CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17093) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Impression2805/OpenMix)
- On the Pitfall of Mixup for Uncertainty Calibration CVPR2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2023/html/Wang_On_the_Pitfall_of_Mixup_for_Uncertainty_Calibration_CVPR_2023_paper.html)
- Diverse, Global and Amortised Counterfactual Explanations for Uncertainty Estimates AAAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.02646)
- Out-of-distribution Detection with Implicit Outlier Transformation ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.05033) - PyTorch(https://github.com/qizhouwang/doe)
- PixMix: Dreamlike Pictures Comprehensively Improve Safety Measures CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.05135)
- RegMixup: Mixup as a Regularizer Can Surprisingly Improve Accuracy & Out-of-Distribution Robustness NeurIPS2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.14502) - PyTorch(https://github.com/francescopinto/regmixup)
- Towards efficient feature sharing in MIMO architectures CVPR Workshop2022(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2022W/ECV/html/Sun_Towards_Efficient_Feature_Sharing_in_MIMO_Architectures_CVPRW_2022_paper.html)
- Robust Semantic Segmentation with Superpixel-Mix BMVC2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.00968) - PyTorch(https://github.com/giannifranchi/deeplabv3-superpixelmix)
- MixMo: Mixing Multiple Inputs for Multiple Outputs via Deep Subnetworks ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.06132) - PyTorch(https://github.com/alexrame/mixmo-pytorch)
- Training independent subnetworks for robust prediction ICLR2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.06610)
- Regularizing Variational Autoencoder with Diversity and Uncertainty Awareness IJCAI2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.12381) - PyTorch(https://github.com/smilesdzgk/du-vae)
- Uncertainty-aware GAN with Adaptive Loss for Robust MRI Image Enhancement ICCV Workshop2021(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2110.03343.pdf)
- Uncertainty-Aware Deep Classifiers using Generative Models AAAI2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.04183)
- Synthesize then Compare: Detecting Failures and Anomalies for Semantic Segmentation ECCV2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.08440) - PyTorch(https://github.com/YingdaXia/SynthCP)
- Detecting the Unexpected via Image Resynthesis ICCV2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07595) - PyTorch(https://github.com/cvlab-epfl/detecting-the-unexpected)
- Mix-n-match: Ensemble and compositional methods for uncertainty calibration in deep learning ICML2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/zhang20k/zhang20k.pdf)
- Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure ICLR2019(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.04606.pdf)
- On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.11001)
**Arxiv**
- Reliability in Semantic Segmentation: Can We Use Synthetic Data? arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.09231.pdf)
- ZigZag: Universal Sampling-free Uncertainty Estimation Through Two-Step Inference arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.11435)
- Quantifying uncertainty with GAN-based priors arXiv2019(https://openreview.net/forum?id=HyeAPeBFwS) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/dhruvpatel108/GANPriors)
## Output-Space-Modeling/Evidential-deep-learning
**Conference**
- Discretization-Induced Dirichlet Posterior for Robust Uncertainty Quantification on Regression AAAI2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.09065) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/DIDO)
- The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Evidential Regression AAAI2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.10060) - PyTorch(https://github.com/pasteurlabs/unreasonable_effective_der) - TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
- Exploring and Exploiting Uncertainty for Incomplete Multi-View Classification CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.05165)
- Plausible Uncertainties for Human Pose Regression ICCV2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023/papers/Bramlage_Plausible_Uncertainties_for_Human_Pose_Regression_ICCV_2023_paper.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/biggzlar/plausible-uncertainties)
- Uncertainty Estimation by Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning ICML2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.02045.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/danruod/iedl)
- Improving Evidential Deep Learning via Multi-task Learning AAAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.09368) - PyTorch(https://github.com/deargen/MT-ENet)
- An Evidential Neural Network Model for Regression Based on Random Fuzzy Numbers BELIEF2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.00647)
- On the Pitfalls of Heteroscedastic Uncertainty Estimation with Probabilistic Neural Networks ICLR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.09168) - PyTorch(https://github.com/martius-lab/beta-nll)
- Natural Posterior Network: Deep Bayesian Uncertainty for Exponential Family Distributions ICLR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.04471) - PyTorch(https://github.com/borchero/natural-posterior-network)
- Pitfalls of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification through Loss Minimisation NeurIPS2022(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=epjxT_ARZW5)
- Fast Predictive Uncertainty for Classification with Bayesian Deep Networks UAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.01227) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mariushobbhahn/LB_for_BNNs_official)
- Evaluating robustness of predictive uncertainty estimation: Are Dirichlet-based models reliable? ICML2021(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v139/kopetzki21a/kopetzki21a.pdf)
- Trustworthy multimodal regression with mixture of normal-inverse gamma distributions NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08456)
- Misclassification Risk and Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Classifiers WACV2021(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/WACV2021/html/Sensoy_Misclassification_Risk_and_Uncertainty_Quantification_in_Deep_Classifiers_WACV_2021_paper.html)
- Ensemble Distribution Distillation ICLR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00076)
- Conservative Uncertainty Estimation By Fitting Prior Networks ICLR2020(https://openreview.net/forum?id=BJlahxHYDS)
- Being Bayesian about Categorical Probability ICML2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07965) - PyTorch(https://github.com/tjoo512/belief-matching-framework)
- Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/0eac690d7059a8de4b48e90f14510391-Abstract.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/sharpenb/Posterior-Network)
- Deep Evidential Regression NeurIPS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02600) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/aamini/evidential-deep-learning)
- Noise Contrastive Priors for Functional Uncertainty UAI2020(https://proceedings.mlr.press/v115/hafner20a.html)
- Towards Maximizing the Representation Gap between In-Domain & Out-of-Distribution Examples NeurIPS Workshop2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10474)
- Uncertainty on Asynchronous Time Event Prediction NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.05503) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/sharpenb/Uncertainty-Event-Prediction)
- Reverse KL-Divergence Training of Prior Networks: Improved Uncertainty and Adversarial Robustness NeurIPS2019(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/7dd2ae7db7d18ee7c9425e38df1af5e2-Abstract.html)
- Quantifying Classification Uncertainty using Regularized Evidential Neural Networks AAAI FSS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06864)
- Uncertainty estimates and multi-hypotheses networks for optical flow ECCV2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07095) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/lmb-freiburg/netdef_models)
- Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty NeurIPS2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01768) - PyTorch(https://github.com/dougbrion/pytorch-classification-uncertainty)
- Predictive uncertainty estimation via prior networks NeurIPS2018(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2018/hash/3ea2db50e62ceefceaf70a9d9a56a6f4-Abstract.html)
- What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision? NeurIPS2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.04977)
- Estimating the Mean and Variance of the Target Probability Distribution (ICNN1994)(https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/374138)
**Journal**
- Prior and Posterior Networks: A Survey on Evidential Deep Learning Methods For Uncertainty Estimation TMLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03051)
- Region-Based Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Uncertainty and Improve Robustness of Brain Tumor Segmentation NCA2022(http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.06038)
- An evidential classifier based on Dempster-Shafer theory and deep learning Neurocomputing2021(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925231221004525) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/tongzheng1992/E-CNN-classifier)
- Evidential fully convolutional network for semantic segmentation AppliedIntelligence2021(https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10489-021-02327-0) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/tongzheng1992/E-FCN)
- Information Aware max-norm Dirichlet networks for predictive uncertainty estimation NeuralNetworks2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.04819#:~:text=Information%20Aware%20Max%2DNorm%20Dirichlet%20Networks%20for%20Predictive%20Uncertainty%20Estimation,-Theodoros%20Tsiligkaridis&text=Precise%20estimation%20of%20uncertainty%20in,prone%20to%20over%2Dconfident%20predictions)
- A neural network classifier based on Dempster-Shafer theory IEEETransSMC2000(https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/833094/)
**Arxiv**
- Evidential Uncertainty Quantification: A Variance-Based Perspective arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.11367.pdf)
- Effective Uncertainty Estimation with Evidential Models for Open-World Recognition arXiv2022(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=NrB52z3eOTY)
- Multivariate Deep Evidential Regression arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.06135)
- Regression Prior Networks arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11590)
- A Variational Dirichlet Framework for Out-of-Distribution Detection arXiv2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.07308)
- Uncertainty estimation in deep learning with application to spoken language assessment PhDThesis2019(https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/298857)
- Inhibited softmax for uncertainty estimation in neural networks arXiv2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01861)
- Quantifying Intrinsic Uncertainty in Classification via Deep Dirichlet Mixture Networks arXiv2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.04450)
## Deterministic-Uncertainty-Methods
**Conference**
- Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11582) - PyTorch(https://github.com/omegafragger/DDU)
- Gaussian Latent Representations for Uncertainty Estimation using Mahalanobis Distance in Deep Classifiers ICCV Workshop2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023W/UnCV/papers/Venkataramanan_Gaussian_Latent_Representations_for_Uncertainty_Estimation_Using_Mahalanobis_Distance_in_ICCVW_2023_paper.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/vaishwarya96/MAPLE-uncertainty-estimation)
- A Simple and Explainable Method for Uncertainty Estimation using Attribute Prototype Networks ICCV Workshop2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023W/UnCV/papers/Zelenka_A_Simple_and_Explainable_Method_for_Uncertainty_Estimation_Using_Attribute_ICCVW_2023_paper.pdf)
- Training, Architecture, and Prior for Deterministic Uncertainty Methods ICLR Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.05796) - PyTorch(https://github.com/orientino/dum-components)
- Latent Discriminant deterministic Uncertainty ECCV2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.10130) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/LDU)
- On the Practicality of Deterministic Epistemic Uncertainty ICML2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00649)
- Improving Deterministic Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning for Classification and Regression CoRR2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.11409)
- Uncertainty Estimation Using a Single Deep Deterministic Neural Network ICML2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.02037) - PyTorch(https://github.com/y0ast/deterministic-uncertainty-quantification)
- Training normalizing flows with the information bottleneck for competitive generative classification NeurIPS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.06448)
- Simple and principled uncertainty estimation with deterministic deep learning via distance awareness NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/543e83748234f7cbab21aa0ade66565f-Abstract.html)
- Revisiting One-vs-All Classifiers for Predictive Uncertainty and Out-of-Distribution Detection in Neural Networks ICML Workshop2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05134)
- Sampling-Free Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation Using Approximated Variance Propagation ICCV2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_ICCV_2019/html/Postels_Sampling-Free_Epistemic_Uncertainty_Estimation_Using_Approximated_Variance_Propagation_ICCV_2019_paper.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/janisgp/Sampling-free-Epistemic-Uncertainty)
- Single-Model Uncertainties for Deep Learning NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.00908) - PyTorch(https://github.com/facebookresearch/SingleModelUncertainty/)
**Journal**
- Density estimation in representation space EDSMLS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.07235)
**Arxiv**
- The Hidden Uncertainty in a Neural Network’s Activations arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.03082)
- A simple framework for uncertainty in contrastive learning arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.02038)
- Distance-based Confidence Score for Neural Network Classifiers arXiv2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.09844)
## Quantile-Regression/Predicted-Intervals
**Conference**
- Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging ICML2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05265) - PyTorch(https://github.com/aangelopoulos/im2im-uq)
- Prediction Intervals: Split Normal Mixture from Quality-Driven Deep Ensembles UAI2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v124/saleh-salem20a.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/tarik/pi-snm-qde)
- Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/244edd7e85dc81602b7615cd705545f5-Abstract.html)
- Single-Model Uncertainties for Deep Learning NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.00908) - PyTorch(https://github.com/facebookresearch/SingleModelUncertainty/)
- High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approach ICML2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07167) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/TeaPearce/Deep_Learning_Prediction_Intervals)
**Journal**
- Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Operator Networks using Randomized Priors CMAME2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.03048)
- Exploring uncertainty in regression neural networks for construction of prediction intervals Neurocomputing2022(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925231222001102)
**Arxiv**
- Interval Neural Networks: Uncertainty Scores arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.11566)
- Tight Prediction Intervals Using Expanded Interval Minimization arXiv2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.11222)
## Conformal Predictions
Awesome Conformal Prediction GitHub(https://github.com/valeman/awesome-conformal-prediction)
<!– **Conference**
- Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-values Ann. Statist. 2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.08279) - Python(https://github.com/msesia/conditional-conformal-pvalues)
- Uncertainty sets for image classifiers using conformal prediction ICLR2021(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.14193.pdf) - GitHub(https://github.com/aangelopoulos/conformal_classification)
- Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift NeurIPS2019(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/8fb21ee7a2207526da55a679f0332de2-Abstract.html)
- Conformalized Quantile Regression NeurIPS2019(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/5103c3584b063c431bd1268e9b5e76fb-Abstract.html) –>
## Calibration/Evaluation-Metrics
**Conference**
- Calibrating Transformers via Sparse Gaussian Processes ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.02444) - PyTorch(https://github.com/chenw20/sgpa)
- Beyond calibration: estimating the grouping loss of modern neural networks ICLR2023(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=6w1k-IixnL8) - Python(https://github.com/aperezlebel/beyond_calibration)
- What Are Effective Labels for Augmented Data? Improving Calibration and Robustness with AutoLabel SaTML2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.11188)
- The Devil is in the Margin: Margin-based Label Smoothing for Network Calibration CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.15430) - PyTorch(https://github.com/by-liu/mbls)
- Calibrating Deep Neural Networks by Pairwise Constraints CVPR2022(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2022/html/Cheng_Calibrating_Deep_Neural_Networks_by_Pairwise_Constraints_CVPR_2022_paper.html)
- Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductions ICLR2022(https://openreview.net/forum?id=WqoBaaPHS-)
- From label smoothing to label relaxation AAAI2021(https://www.aaai.org/AAAI21Papers/AAAI-2191.LienenJ.pdf)
- Diagnostic Uncertainty Calibration: Towards Reliable Machine Predictions in Medical Domain AIStats2021(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.01659)
- Beyond Pinball Loss: Quantile Methods for Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.09588)
- Confidence-Aware Learning for Deep Neural Networks ICML2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.01458) - PyTorch(https://github.com/daintlab/confidence-aware-learning)
- Mix-n-match: Ensemble and compositional methods for uncertainty calibration in deep learning ICML2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v119/zhang20k/zhang20k.pdf)
- Regularization via structural label smoothing ICML2020(https://proceedings.mlr.press/v108/li20e.html)
- Well-Calibrated Regression Uncertainty in Medical Imaging with Deep Learning MIDL2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v121/laves20a.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mlaves/well-calibrated-regression-uncertainty)
- Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss NeurIPS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.09437) - PyTorch(https://github.com/torrvision/focal_calibration)
- Stationary activations for uncertainty calibration in deep learning NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/18a411989b47ed75a60ac69d9da05aa5-Abstract.html)
- Revisiting the evaluation of uncertainty estimation and its application to explore model complexity-uncertainty trade-off CVPR Workshop2020(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_CVPRW_2020/html/w1/Ding_Revisiting_the_Evaluation_of_Uncertainty_Estimation_and_Its_Application_to_CVPRW_2020_paper.html)
- Evaluating Scalable Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Robust Computer Vision CVPR Workshop2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01620) - PyTorch(https://github.com/fregu856/evaluating_bdl)
- Bias-Reduced Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Neural Classifiers ICLR2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08206)
- Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration NeurIPS2019(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.12656.pdf) - GitHub(https://github.com/dirichletcal)
- When does label smoothing help? NeurIPS2019(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2019/hash/f1748d6b0fd9d439f71450117eba2725-Abstract.html)
- Verified Uncertainty Calibration NeurIPS2019(https://papers.NeurIPS.cc/paper/2019/hash/f8c0c968632845cd133308b1a494967f-Abstract.html) - GitHub(https://github.com/p-lambda/verified_calibration)
- Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning CVPR Workshop2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.01685)
- Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression ICML2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.00263)
- Generalized zero-shot learning with deep calibration network NeurIPS2018(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2018/hash/1587965fb4d4b5afe8428a4a024feb0d-Abstract.html)
- On calibration of modern neural networks ICML2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.04599) - TorchUncertainty(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
- On Fairness and Calibration NeurIPS2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.02012)
- Obtaining Well Calibrated Probabilities Using Bayesian Binning AAAI2015(https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/9602/9461)
**Journal**
- Meta-Calibration: Learning of Model Calibration Using Differentiable Expected Calibration Error TMLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.09613) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ondrejbohdal/meta-calibration)
- Evaluating and Calibrating Uncertainty Prediction in Regression Tasks Sensors2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.11659)
- Calibrated Prediction Intervals for Neural Network Regressors IEEE Access 2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.09546) - Python(https://github.com/cruvadom/Prediction_Intervals)
**Arxiv**
- Towards Understanding Label Smoothing arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11653)
- An Investigation of how Label Smoothing Affects Generalization arXiv2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.12648)
## Applications
### Classification and Semantic-Segmentation
**Conference**
- Modeling Multimodal Aleatoric Uncertainty in Segmentation with Mixture of Stochastic Experts ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.07328) - PyTorch(https://github.com/gaozhitong/mose-auseg)
- Anytime Dense Prediction with Confidence Adaptivity ICLR2022(https://openreview.net/forum?id=kNKFOXleuC) - PyTorch(https://github.com/liuzhuang13/anytime)
- CRISP - Reliable Uncertainty Estimation for Medical Image Segmentation MICCAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07664)
- TBraTS: Trusted Brain Tumor Segmentation MICCAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.09309) - PyTorch(https://github.com/cocofeat/tbrats)
- Robust Semantic Segmentation with Superpixel-Mix BMVC2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.00968) - PyTorch(https://github.com/giannifranchi/deeplabv3-superpixelmix)
- Deep Deterministic Uncertainty for Semantic Segmentation ICMLW2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.00079)
- DEAL: Difficulty-aware Active Learning for Semantic Segmentation ACCV2020(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ACCV2020/html/Xie_DEAL_Difficulty-aware_Active_Learning_for_Semantic_Segmentation_ACCV_2020_paper.html)
- Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage NeurIPS2020(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2020/hash/244edd7e85dc81602b7615cd705545f5-Abstract.html)
- Guided Curriculum Model Adaptation and Uncertainty-Aware Evaluation for Semantic Nighttime Image Segmentation ICCV2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_ICCV_2019/html/Sakaridis_Guided_Curriculum_Model_Adaptation_and_Uncertainty-Aware_Evaluation_for_Semantic_Nighttime_ICCV_2019_paper.html)
- Human Uncertainty Makes Classification More Robust ICCV2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_ICCV_2019/html/Peterson_Human_Uncertainty_Makes_Classification_More_Robust_ICCV_2019_paper.html)
- Uncertainty-aware self-ensembling model for semi-supervised 3D left atrium segmentation MICCAI2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.05034) - PyTorch(https://github.com/yulequan/UA-MT)
- Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networks CVPR2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.11327) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ezjong/lightprobnets)
- A Probabilistic U-Net for Segmentation of Ambiguous Images NeurIPS2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.05034) - PyTorch(https://github.com/stefanknegt/Probabilistic-Unet-Pytorch)
- Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty NeurIPS2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01768) - PyTorch(https://github.com/dougbrion/pytorch-classification-uncertainty)
- To Trust Or Not To Trust A Classifier NeurIPS2018(https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/2018/hash/7180cffd6a8e829dacfc2a31b3f72ece-Abstract.html)
- Classification uncertainty of deep neural networks based on gradient information IAPR Workshop2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08440)
- Bayesian segnet: Model uncertainty in deep convolutional encoder-decoder architectures for scene understanding BMVC2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.02680)
**Journal**
- Explainable machine learning in image classification models: An uncertainty quantification perspective.” KnowledgeBased2022(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095070512200168X)
- Region-Based Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Uncertainty and Improve Robustness of Brain Tumor Segmentation NCA2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.06038)
**Arxiv**
- Leveraging Uncertainty Estimates to Improve Classifier Performance arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.11723.pdf)
- Evaluating Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Semantic Segmentation arXiv2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12709)
### Regression
**Conference**
- Learning the Distribution of Errors in Stereo Matching for Joint Disparity and Uncertainty Estimation CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.00152) - PyTorch(https://github.com/lly00412/sednet)
- Probabilistic MIMO U-Net: Efficient and Accurate Uncertainty Estimation for Pixel-wise Regression ICCV Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.07477) - PyTorch(https://github.com/antonbaumann/mimo-unet)
- Training-Free Uncertainty Estimation for Dense Regression: Sensitivity as a Surrogate AAAI2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.04858v3)
- Learning Structured Gaussians to Approximate Deep Ensembles CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15485)
- Uncertainty Quantification in Depth Estimation via Constrained Ordinal Regression ECCV2022(https://www.ecva.net/papers/eccv_2022/papers_ECCV/papers/136620229.pdf)
- On Monocular Depth Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification using Classification Approaches for Regression ICIP2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.12369)
- Anytime Dense Prediction with Confidence Adaptivity ICLR2022(https://openreview.net/forum?id=kNKFOXleuC) - PyTorch(https://github.com/liuzhuang13/anytime)
- Variational Depth Networks: Uncertainty-Aware Monocular Self-supervised Depth Estimation ECCV Workshop2022(https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-25085-9_3)
- SLURP: Side Learning Uncertainty for Regression Problems BMVC2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.02395) - PyTorch(https://github.com/xuanlongORZ/SLURP_uncertainty_estimate)
- Robustness via Cross-Domain Ensembles ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.10919) - PyTorch(https://github.com/EPFL-VILAB/XDEnsembles)
- Learning to Predict Error for MRI Reconstruction MICCAI2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.05582)
- On the uncertainty of self-supervised monocular depth estimation CVPR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06209) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mattpoggi/mono-uncertainty)
- Quantifying Point-Prediction Uncertainty in Neural Networks via Residual Estimation with an I/O Kernel ICLR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.00588) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/cognizant-ai-labs/rio-paper)
- Fast Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Learning Based Optical Flow IROS2020(https://authors.library.caltech.edu/104758/)
- Well-Calibrated Regression Uncertainty in Medical Imaging with Deep Learning MIDL2020(http://proceedings.mlr.press/v121/laves20a.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mlaves/well-calibrated-regression-uncertainty)
- Deep Evidential Regression NeurIPS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.02600) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/aamini/evidential-deep-learning)
- Inferring Distributions Over Depth from a Single Image IROS2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.06268) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/gengshan-y/monodepth-uncertainty)
- Multi-Task Learning based on Separable Formulation of Depth Estimation and its Uncertainty CVPR Workshop2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_CVPRW_2019/html/Uncertainty_and_Robustness_in_Deep_Visual_Learning/Asai_Multi-Task_Learning_based_on_Separable_Formulation_of_Depth_Estimation_and_CVPRW_2019_paper.html)
- Lightweight Probabilistic Deep Networks CVPR2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.11327) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ezjong/lightprobnets)
- Structured Uncertainty Prediction Networks CVPR2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07079) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/Era-Dorta/tf_mvg)
- Uncertainty estimates and multi-hypotheses networks for optical flow ECCV2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07095) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/lmb-freiburg/netdef_models)
- Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression ICML2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.00263)
**Journal**
- How Reliable is Your Regression Model’s Uncertainty Under Real-World Distribution Shifts? TMLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.03679) - PyTorch(https://github.com/fregu856/regression_uncertainty)
- Evaluating and Calibrating Uncertainty Prediction in Regression Tasks Sensors2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.11659)
- Exploring uncertainty in regression neural networks for construction of prediction intervals Neurocomputing2022(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925231222001102)
- Wasserstein Dropout Machine Learning 2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.12687) - PyTorch(https://github.com/fraunhofer-iais/second-moment-loss)
- Deep Distribution Regression Computational Statistics & Data Analysis2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.06023)
- Calibrated Prediction Intervals for Neural Network Regressors IEEE Access 2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.09546) - Python(https://github.com/cruvadom/Prediction_Intervals)
- Learning a Confidence Measure for Optical Flow TPAMI2013(https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=6261321&casa_token=fYVGhK2pa40AAAAA:XWJdS8zJ4JRw1brCIGiYpzEqMidXTTYVkcKTYnnhSl4ys5pUoHzHO6xsVeGZII9Ir1LAI_3YyfI&tag=1)
**Arxiv**
- Measuring and Modeling Uncertainty Degree for Monocular Depth Estimation arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.09929)
- UncertaINR: Uncertainty Quantification of End-to-End Implicit Neural Representations for Computed Tomographaphy arXiv2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.10847)
- Efficient Gaussian Neural Processes for Regression arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.09676)
### Anomaly-detection, Out-of-Distribution-Detection and Failure detection
**Conference**
- SURE: SUrvey REcipes for building reliable and robust deep networks CVPR2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.00543) - PyTorch(https://yutingli0606.github.io/SURE/)
- NECO: NEural Collapse Based Out-of-distribution Detection ICLR2024(https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06823)
- Anomaly Detection under Distribution Shift ICCV2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.13845) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mala-lab/ADShift)
- Normalizing Flows for Human Pose Anomaly Detection ICCV2023(https://orhir.github.io/STG_NF/) - PyTorch(https://github.com/orhir/stg-nf)
- RbA: Segmenting Unknown Regions Rejected by All ICCV2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023/papers/Nayal_RbA_Segmenting_Unknown_Regions_Rejected_by_All_ICCV_2023_paper.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/NazirNayal8/RbA)
- Uncertainty-Aware Optimal Transport for Semantically Coherent Out-of-Distribution Detection CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10449) - PyTorch(https://github.com/lufan31/et-ood)
- Modeling the Distributional Uncertainty for Salient Object Detection Models CVPR2023(https://npucvr.github.io/Distributional_uncer/) - PyTorch(https://github.com/txynwpu/Distributional_uncertainty_SOD)
- SQUID: Deep Feature In-Painting for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.13495) - PyTorch(https://github.com/tiangexiang/SQUID)
- How to Exploit Hyperspherical Embeddings for Out-of-Distribution Detection? ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.04450.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/cider)
- Modeling the Data-Generating Process is Necessary for Out-of-Distribution Generalization ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.07837.pdf)
- Can CNNs Be More Robust Than Transformers? ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.03452.pdf)
- A framework for benchmarking class-out-of-distribution detection and its application to ImageNet ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.11893.pdf)
- Extremely Simple Activation Shaping for Out-of-Distribution Detection ICLR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.09858) - PyTorch(https://github.com/andrijazz/ash)
- Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models NeurIPS2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03217)
- The Robust Semantic Segmentation UNCV2023 Challenge Results ICCV Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.15478)
- Continual Evidential Deep Learning for Out-of-Distribution Detection ICCV Workshop2023(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ICCV2023W/VCL/html/Aguilar_Continual_Evidential_Deep_Learning_for_Out-of-Distribution_Detection_ICCVW_2023_paper.html)
- Far Away in the Deep Space: Nearest-Neighbor-Based Dense Out-of-Distribution Detection ICCV Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.06660)
- Gaussian Latent Representations for Uncertainty Estimation using Mahalanobis Distance in Deep Classifiers ICCV Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13849)
- Calibrated Out-of-Distribution Detection with a Generic Representation ICCV Workshop2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.13148) - PyTorch(https://github.com/vojirt/grood)
- Detecting Misclassification Errors in Neural Networks with a Gaussian Process Model AAAI2022(https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/20773)
- Augmenting Softmax Information for Selective Classification with Out-of-Distribution Data ACCV2022(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/ACCV2022/html/Xia_Augmenting_Softmax_Information_for_Selective_Classification_with_Out-of-Distribution_Data_ACCV_2022_paper.html)
- Anomaly Detection via Reverse Distillation from One-Class Embedding CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.10703)
- Towards Total Recall in Industrial Anomaly Detection CVPR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.08265) - PyTorch(https://github.com/hcw-00/PatchCore_anomaly_detection)
- Rethinking Confidence Calibration for Failure Prediction ECCV2022(https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-19806-9_30) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Impression2805/FMFP)
- VOS: Learning What You Don’t Know by Virtual Outlier Synthesis ICLR2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.01197) - PyTorch(https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/vos)
- Fully Convolutional Cross-Scale-Flows for Image-based Defect Detection WACV2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.02855) - PyTorch(https://github.com/marco-rudolph/cs-flow)
- Out-of-Distribution Detection Using Union of 1-Dimensional Subspaces CVPR2021(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2021/html/Zaeemzadeh_Out-of-Distribution_Detection_Using_Union_of_1-Dimensional_Subspaces_CVPR_2021_paper.html) - PyTorch(https://github.com/zaeemzadeh/OOD)
- NAS-OoD: Neural Architecture Search for Out-of-Distribution Generalization ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.02038)
- On the Importance of Gradients for Detecting Distributional Shifts in the Wild NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.00218)
- Exploring the Limits of Out-of-Distribution Detection NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.03004)
- Detecting out-of-distribution image without learning from out-of-distribution data. CVPR2020(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_CVPR_2020/html/Hsu_Generalized_ODIN_Detecting_Out-of-Distribution_Image_Without_Learning_From_Out-of-Distribution_Data_CVPR_2020_paper.html)
- Learning Open Set Network with Discriminative Reciprocal Points ECCV2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.00178)
- Synthesize then Compare: Detecting Failures and Anomalies for Semantic Segmentation ECCV2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.08440) - PyTorch(https://github.com/YingdaXia/SynthCP)
- NADS: Neural Architecture Distribution Search for Uncertainty Awareness ICML2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06646)
- PaDiM: a Patch Distribution Modeling Framework for Anomaly Detection and Localization ICPR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.08785) - PyTorch(https://github.com/openvinotoolkit/anomalib)
- Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection NeurIPS2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.03759?context=cs)
- Towards Maximizing the Representation Gap between In-Domain & Out-of-Distribution Examples NeurIPS Workshop2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.10474)
- Memorizing Normality to Detect Anomaly: Memory-Augmented Deep Autoencoder for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection ICCV2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.02639) - PyTorch(https://github.com/donggong1/memae-anomaly-detection)
- Detecting the Unexpected via Image Resynthesis ICCV2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07595) - PyTorch(https://github.com/cvlab-epfl/detecting-the-unexpected)
- Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks ICLR2018(https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.02690)
- A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks ICLR2017(https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.02136) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/hendrycks/error-detection)
**Journal**
- Revisiting Confidence Estimation: Towards Reliable Failure Prediction TPAMI2023(https://www.computer.org/csdl/journal/tp/5555/01/10356834/1SQHDHvGg9i) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Impression2805/FMFP)
- One Versus all for deep Neural Network for uncertaInty (OVNNI) quantification IEEE Access2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00954)
**Arxiv**
- Neuron Activation Coverage: Rethinking Out-of-distribution Detection and Generalization arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.02879) - PyTorch(https://github.com/bierone/ood_coverage)
- A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.09022)
- Generalized out-of-distribution detection: A survey arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.11334)
- Do We Really Need to Learn Representations from In-domain Data for Outlier Detection? arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09270)
- Frequentist uncertainty estimates for deep learning arXiv2018(http://bayesiandeeplearning.org/2018/papers/31.pdf)
### Object detection
**Conference**
- Bridging Precision and Confidence: A Train-Time Loss for Calibrating Object Detection CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.14404.pdf)
- Parametric and Multivariate Uncertainty Calibration for Regression and Object Detection ECCV Workshop2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.01242) - PyTorch(https://github.com/EFS-OpenSource/calibration-framework)
- Estimating and Evaluating Regression Predictive Uncertainty in Deep Object Detectors ICLR2021(https://openreview.net/forum?id=YLewtnvKgR7)
- Multivariate Confidence Calibration for Object Detection CVPR Workshop2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.13546) - PyTorch(https://github.com/EFS-OpenSource/calibration-framework)
- Gaussian YOLOv3: An Accurate and Fast Object Detector Using Localization Uncertainty for Autonomous Driving ICCV2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_ICCV_2019/papers/Choi_Gaussian_YOLOv3_An_Accurate_and_Fast_Object_Detector_Using_Localization_ICCV_2019_paper.pdf) - CUDA(https://github.com/jwchoi384/Gaussian_YOLOv3) - PyTorch(https://github.com/motokimura/PyTorch_Gaussian_YOLOv3) - Keras(https://github.com/xuannianz/keras-GaussianYOLOv3)
### Domain adaptation
**Conference**
- Guiding Pseudo-labels with Uncertainty Estimation for Source-free Unsupervised Domain Adaptation CVPR2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.03770) - PyTorch(https://github.com/mattialitrico/guiding-pseudo-labels-with-uncertainty-estimation-for-source-free-unsupervised-domain-adaptation)
- Uncertainty-guided Source-free
Domain Adaptation ECCV2022(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.07591.pdf) - PyTorch(https://github.com/roysubhankar/uncertainty-sfda)
### Semi-supervised
**Conference**
- Confidence Estimation Using Unlabeled Data ICLR2023(https://openreview.net/pdf?id=sOXU-PEJSgQ) - PyTorch(https://github.com/TopoXLab/consistency-ranking-loss)
### Natural Language Processing
Awesome LLM Uncertainty, Reliability, & Robustness GitHub(https://github.com/jxzhangjhu/Awesome-LLM-Uncertainty-Reliability-Robustness)
**Conference**
- R-U-SURE? Uncertainty-Aware Code Suggestions By Maximizing Utility Across Random User Intents ICML2023(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.00732.pdf) - GitHub(https://github.com/google-research/r_u_sure)
- Strength in Numbers: Estimating Confidence of Large Language Models by Prompt Agreement TrustNLP2023(https://aclanthology.org/2023.trustnlp-1.28/) - GitHub(https://github.com/JHU-CLSP/Confidence-Estimation-TrustNLP2023)
- Disentangling Uncertainty in Machine Translation Evaluation EMNLP2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.06546) - PyTorch(https://github.com/deep-spin/uncertainties_mt_eval)
- Investigating Ensemble Methods for Model Robustness Improvement of Text Classifiers EMNLP2022 Findings(https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.16298)
- DATE: Detecting Anomalies in Text via Self-Supervision of Transformers NAACL2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.05591)
- Calibrating Structured Output Predictors for Natural Language Processing ACL2020(https://aclanthology.org/2020.acl-main.188/)
- Calibrated Language Model Fine-Tuning for In- and Out-of-Distribution Data EMNLP2020(https://aclanthology.org/2020.emnlp-main.102/) - PyTorch(https://github.com/Lingkai-Kong/Calibrated-BERT-Fine-Tuning)
**Journal**
- How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering TACL2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.00955) - PyTorch(https://github.com/jzbjyb/lm-calibration)
**Arxiv**
- Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling arXiv2023(https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08718)
### Others
**Arxiv**
- Urban 3D Panoptic Scene Completion with Uncertainty Awareness arXiv2023(https://astra-vision.github.io/PaSCo/) - PyTorch(https://github.com/astra-vision/PaSCo)
- SHIFT: A Synthetic Driving Dataset for Continuous Multi-Task Domain Adaptation CVPR2022(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content/CVPR2022/html/Sun_SHIFT_A_Synthetic_Driving_Dataset_for_Continuous_Multi-Task_Domain_Adaptation_CVPR_2022_paper.html)
- MUAD: Multiple Uncertainties for Autonomous Driving, a benchmark for multiple uncertainty types and tasks BMVC2022(https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.01437) - PyTorch(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/MUAD-Dataset)
- ACDC: The Adverse Conditions Dataset with Correspondences for Semantic Driving Scene Understanding ICCV2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.13395)
- The MVTec Anomaly Detection Dataset: A Comprehensive Real-World Dataset for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection IJCV2021(https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11263-020-01400-4.pdf)
- SegmentMeIfYouCan: A Benchmark for Anomaly Segmentation NeurIPS2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.14812)
- Uncertainty Baselines: Benchmarks for Uncertainty & Robustness in Deep Learning arXiv2021(https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.04015) - TensorFlow(https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines)
- Curriculum Model Adaptation with Synthetic and Real Data for Semantic Foggy Scene Understanding IJCV2020(https://people.ee.ethz.ch/~csakarid/Model_adaptation_SFSU_dense/)
- Benchmarking the Robustness of Semantic Segmentation Models CVPR2020(https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.05005)
- Fishyscapes: A Benchmark for Safe Semantic Segmentation in Autonomous Driving ICCV Workshop2019(https://openaccess.thecvf.com/content_ICCVW_2019/html/ADW/Blum_Fishyscapes_A_Benchmark_for_Safe_Semantic_Segmentation_in_Autonomous_Driving_ICCVW_2019_paper.html)
- Benchmarking Robustness in Object Detection: Autonomous Driving when Winter is Coming NeurIPS Workshop2019(https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.07484) - GitHub(https://github.com/bethgelab/robust-detection-benchmark)
- Semantic Foggy Scene Understanding with Synthetic Data IJCV2018(https://people.ee.ethz.ch/~csakarid/SFSU_synthetic/)
- Lost and Found: Detecting Small Road Hazards for Self-Driving Vehicles IROS2016(https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.04653)
## Python
- Uncertainty Calibration Library GitHub(https://github.com/p-lambda/verified_calibration)
- MAPIE: Model Agnostic Prediction Interval Estimator Sklearn(https://github.com/scikit-learn-contrib/MAPIE)
- Uncertainty Toolbox GitHub(https://uncertainty-toolbox.github.io/)
- OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized OOD Detection GitHub(https://github.com/jingkang50/openood)
- Darts: Forecasting and anomaly detection on time series GitHub(https://github.com/unit8co/darts)
- Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for distribution and uncertainty estimation GitHub(https://github.com/axelbrando/Mixture-Density-Networks-for-distribution-and-uncertainty-estimation)
## PyTorch
- TorchUncertainty GitHub(https://github.com/ENSTA-U2IS/torch-uncertainty)
- Bayesian Torch GitHub(https://github.com/IntelLabs/bayesian-torch)
- Blitz: A Bayesian Neural Network library for PyTorch GitHub(https://github.com/piEsposito/blitz-bayesian-deep-learning)
## JAX
## TensorFlow
- TensorFlow Probability Website(https://www.tensorflow.org/probability)
- Dan Hendrycks: Intro to ML Safety course Website(https://course.mlsafety.org/)
- Uncertainty and Robustness in Deep Learning Workshop in ICML (2020, 2021) SlidesLive(https://slideslive.com/icml-2020/icml-workshop-on-uncertainty-and-robustness-in-deep-learning-udl)
- Yarin Gal: Bayesian Deep Learning 101 Website(http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/people/yarin.gal/website/bdl101/)
- MIT 6.S191: Evidential Deep Learning and Uncertainty (2021) Youtube(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toTcf7tZK8c)
- Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks - a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine(https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.06823.pdf)
- The “Probabilistic Machine-Learning” book series by Kevin Murphy Book(https://probml.github.io/pml-book/)
Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning GitHub(https://github.com/ahmedmalaa/deep-learning-uncertainty)
Awesome Out-of-distribution Detection GitHub(https://github.com/continuousml/Awesome-Out-Of-Distribution-Detection)
Anomaly Detection Learning Resources GitHub(https://github.com/yzhao062/anomaly-detection-resources)
Awesome Conformal Prediction GitHub(https://github.com/valeman/awesome-conformal-prediction)
Awesome LLM Uncertainty, Reliability, & Robustness GitHub(https://github.com/jxzhangjhu/Awesome-LLM-Uncertainty-Reliability-Robustness)
UQSay - Seminars on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE) and related topics @ Paris Saclay Website(https://www.uqsay.org/p/welcome.html/)
ProbAI summer school Website(https://probabilistic.ai/)
Gaussian process summer school Website(https://gpss.cc/)