Data concerning confirmed cases and recoveries of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
Sources:
- The Bundesministerium für Soziales, Gesundheit, Pflege und Konsumentenschutz's update page
- Historical data (before 2020-03-11) was filled in from archive.org's historical snapshots of the above page.
Last updated at: 
- 2020-03-20: Austria has stopped reporting recovered cases, so "active" below is not a reliable figure
- 2020-03-13: Austria announces drastic measures in effort to flatten the curve
- "active" cases are those which have not recovered or not died
- "active" cases are those which have not recovered or not died
- Assumes no significant change to mitigation measures
- Given the announcement on 2020-03-13 by the Austrian Government, this is not a valid assumption.
- Credit to Hans Fangohr for the methodology
Forecast for cases in Austria: Last data point used in forecast from 2020-03-28 00:00:00 Infections in 25 days: 7981 (29 Mar 2020) Infections in 26 days: 8696 (30 Mar 2020) Infections in 27 days: 9440 (31 Mar 2020) Infections in 28 days: 10215 (01 Apr 2020) Infections in 29 days: 11021 (02 Apr 2020) Infections in 30 days: 11856 (03 Apr 2020) Infections in 31 days: 12722 (04 Apr 2020) Infections in 32 days: 13619 (05 Apr 2020) Infections in 33 days: 14546 (06 Apr 2020) Infections in 34 days: 15505 (07 Apr 2020) Infections in 35 days: 16493 (08 Apr 2020) Infections in 36 days: 17513 (09 Apr 2020) Infections in 37 days: 18564 (10 Apr 2020) Infections in 38 days: 19645 (11 Apr 2020) Infections in 39 days: 20758 (12 Apr 2020) Infections in 40 days: 21901 (13 Apr 2020) Infections in 41 days: 23076 (14 Apr 2020) Infections in 42 days: 24282 (15 Apr 2020) Infections in 43 days: 25520 (16 Apr 2020) Infections in 44 days: 26788 (17 Apr 2020) Infections in 45 days: 28088 (18 Apr 2020) Infections in 46 days: 29420 (19 Apr 2020) Infections in 47 days: 30783 (20 Apr 2020) Infections in 48 days: 32177 (21 Apr 2020) Infections in 49 days: 33603 (22 Apr 2020) Infections in 50 days: 35061 (23 Apr 2020) Infections in 51 days: 36550 (24 Apr 2020) Infections in 52 days: 38071 (25 Apr 2020) Infections in 53 days: 39624 (26 Apr 2020) Fit parameters: p = 2.075 c = 10.6 t0= -0.000 a0= -446.591
- ORF reported on 2020-03-12 that doubling was at 2.5 days
- however the the recent Lancet paper reports 6.4 days after studiying data from China for Dec 31, 2019, to Jan 28, 2020,
- based on
, we find
- the time for infections or deaths to double is thus given by
- Assumes no significant change to mitigation measures
- Credit to Hans Fangohr for the methodology
Notably these findings reproduce the ORFs reporting that in Austria around 2020-03-12 doubling was happening every 2.5 days.
Forecast for infections doubling in austria: at day 0 (04 Mar 2020), the time to double n is nan days at day 2 (06 Mar 2020), the time to double n is nan days at day 4 (08 Mar 2020), the time to double n is nan days at day 6 (10 Mar 2020), the time to double n is -0.1 days at day 8 (12 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 1.5 days at day 10 (14 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 2.7 days at day 12 (16 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 3.7 days at day 14 (18 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 4.7 days at day 16 (20 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 5.6 days at day 18 (22 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 6.5 days at day 20 (24 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 7.4 days at day 22 (26 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 8.2 days at day 24 (28 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 9.0 days at day 26 (30 Mar 2020), the time to double n is 9.9 days at day 28 (01 Apr 2020), the time to double n is 10.7 days
virtualenv -p $(which python3) venv
source venv/bin/activatepip install -r requirements.txt
python -m parsers.austriajupyter nbconvert --execute --inplace *.ipynbLicensed under BSD 3-Clause License
Copyright (c) 2020, Hans Fangohr
Copyright (c) 2020, Casey Link
Github workflow Copyright (c) 2020 Alex. Licensed under Apache 2.0.
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