A LiveSplit component to estimate the probability of beating a specified time. Inspired by SethBling's PBChance component.
Download the latest version from the Releases page and put LiveSplit.ChanceToBeat.dll in LiveSplit's components folder.
Add the component to the Layout (Information -> Chance To Beat). From here you can change the text displayed (e.g. "PB Chance" or "Sub 1 Chance") and the target time. For the target time, you can either lock to your Personal Best or use a custom time.
The weight is how much to take older attempts into consideration. The extremes are 0 (only look at the last splits for each segments) and 1 (treat all attempts equally). Lower is better for quick improvement, higher is better for slow improvement. For comparison, the average segments feature that comes with LiveSplit uses a weight of 0.75. The weight is a multiple of 0.001, and if you want to be precise you can change the slider by very small amounts with the left and right arrow keys.
You can also set the probability a run ends on any given segment. This is particularly good if the run can die at a certain point due to RNG, or it's easy to take a death, and that isn't reflected in the splits. Apart from this the possibility of a reset is not taken into account, because I have no ideas for how to do this that I'm happy with.
You can also change the background and text colours, if you're so inclined.
If you have any bug reports I would prefer they be reported on the GitHub page, but this isn't required. My Discord is GMS#5303.