zemlyansky / arima

ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX and AutoARIMA models for time series analysis and forecasting in the browser and Node.js

Home Page:https://www.npmjs.com/arima

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Cool work! Do you plan to add the prediction intervals?

timeseries-ru opened this issue · comments

Hi!

It seems to be not so hard to add the intervals, since ctsa implements them.

Thanks

P.S. Sorry, I’m not able to do the pull request.

Hi, that's a great idea! You're right, ctsa returns standard errors together with point predictions. Not sure why I missed that when porting. Will update the package soon..
Thanks!

Updated the package to return standard errors from ctsa:
const [pred, errors] = arima(...)

To get 95% intervals you can do something like:
const intervals = errors.map((e, i) => [pred[i] - 1.96 * Math.sqrt(e), pred[i] + 1.96 * Math.sqrt(e)])