The GCAM model was one of six models used in the quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP; Riahi et al., 2017). The SSPs are new scenarios for climate change modeling and research (Moss et al. 2010, van Vuuren et al., 2014). The five reference SSP scenarios assume no additional measures explicitly designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Each of the five SSP scenarios can also be quantified incorporating limits on 2100 radiative forcing (1.9, 2.6, 4.5, or 6.0, W/m2). Scenarios with specific radiative forcing levels can be mapped to corresponding CMIP climate model experiments as described in O’Neill et al. (2014).
The five SSPs are defined along two different axes: challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation (see Figure below).
Figure: SSPs defined by their Challenges to
Adaptation (x-axis) and Mitigation (y-axis) {: .fig}
Each of the models produced results for between three and five of the SSPs, with one model identified as the “marker” for each SSP. GCAM was the marker model for the SSP4. Marker models, and models providing additional scenario quantifications, for all SSPs are listed in the Table below.
| Identifier | Descriptor | Marker model (institution) | Also quantified by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SSP1 | Sustainability | IMAGE-MAGNET (PBL, LEI) | All |
| SSP2 | Middle-of-the-Road | MESSAGE-GLOBIOM (IIASA) | All |
| SSP3 | Regional Rivalry | AIM/CGE (NIES) | GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM |
| SSP4 | Inequality | GCAM (PNNL) | AIM/CGE |
| SSP5 | Fossil-fueled Development | REMIND-MAgPIE (PIK) | AIM/CGE, GCAM |
The data provided here are for the GCAM quantifications of the SSPs as described in Calvin et al. (2017). The GCAM data for the SSP4 and the GCAM representation of all other SSPs are being made available to interested researchers for scenario analysis and comparison. Please cite the following:
Calvin, K., B. Bond-Lamberty, L. Clarke, J. Edmonds, J. Eom, C. Hartin, S. Kim, P. Kyle, R. Link, R. Moss, H. McJeon, P. Patel, S. Smith, S. Waldhoff and M. Wise (2017). "The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality." Global Environmental Change 42: 284-296.
Note that the scenario data provided for use in CMIP6 is not exactly the same as the original GCAM model results provided here. The CMIP6 data has undergone additional processing to first harmonize emissions and land-use to the historical data used in CMIP6, which are then mapped to spatial grids (Gidden et al. submitted). Gridded emission and land-use data have been made available through ESGF, with additional information and data available through the SSP database.
Kate Calvin
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