SIR Model
This project was a university group project carried out by David Ferneding, Nils Neukirch, and Florian Pöhler. The original goal was to create a SIR model as a multi-agent system. We actually extended this model to a SEIR model, and then even further to allow individuals to have five different states: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Symptomatic, and Recovered. Then we use the ML-Agents framework to train our citizens to try to not get infected.
The code is currently still a bit messy, sorry. It allows us to play around with it and see interesting results though.
Getting Started
This project can't be run (yet), so to see it in action or develop it further, there are some prerequisites.
Prerequisites
- Unity
- ML-Agents
- The Unity package is included as a submodule at ref/ml-agents
- The python package is only needed if you want to train your own model
Running a simulation
To run a simulation you need to open either the LearningScene or the GraphScene. Using the GameManager you can adjust some variables like the number of citizens, the infection chance etc. You should then add a model to the CitizenAgent Prefab by changing the model located under Behavior Parameters.
Ideas/Outlook/Todo
The following list represents a collection of ideas that would be interesting to see implemented:
- Reproduction number R - show R in realtime while running a simulation
- Infection without contact - allow citizens to infect others while being near them without touching
- Hotspots
- Events
- Supermarkets - visiting once in a specified time period could be mandatory
- Age - give the citizens an age
- Medical preconditions - citizens could have some medical issues like diabetes, heart problems etc.
- Death - citizens have a chance of dieing, could be based on age and/or medical conditions
- Quarantine - allow citizens to quarantine themselves
- Standalone application - create a standalone application where the user can change some configurations and run a simulation without needing the unity editor. Development on this has begun, but is on hold and far from finished. See Assets/Scenes/MainScene.unity
- Regions - add different regions to represent countries. Citizens have a small chance to travel to another region
- Improve the arena - currently the arena is just a square. This could be improved with buildings, streets etc. to better resemble a city
Authors
- David Ferneding - @fernedingd
- Nils Neukirch - @NeukirchN
- Florian Pöhler - @poehlerflorian
License
The project is licensed under the MIT license - see the LICENSE for details.