What is Fig 1.2 on p6?
matthewdwood82 opened this issue · comments
A surface that tells us how our beliefs change as our priors chance and our beliefs update? Or just one of these?
Left: contour plot of the EV of theta given our observed sample. It shows all the different EV(theta) given a set of prior_guess/confidence_in_prior_guess. In other words, had we had different priors/confidences, this is what our conclusions would have been, more or less
Right: same story, but insead of EV(theta), it's probability of theta<0.1 given our sample.
Does that clear it up?