2020 myanmar election data research paper by Zin Taryar Win
Myanmar Election 2020: Who is Cheating?
According to 2014 and 2019 population censuses, there is an increase of 864,707 in the total number of population in Myanmar during the 5-year period.
As per Union Election Commission announcements, the difference in the number of eligible voters between 2010 and 2015 is 5.3 million, and between 2015 and 2020 is 3.9 million. So the number difference of the eligible voters in the most recent election is significantly lower than that of previous election.
General Min Aung Hlaing claimed the number of eligible voters in 2020 to be over 10 million more than announced election data, which is twice more than the difference noted in 2014 and 2.5 times more than that in 2019. But if the difference indeed turns out to be over 10 million, it would mean the total number of population in Myanmar for 2020 will be even less than that of 2015.
Relaxations on the eligibility criteria according to the constitutional law article 392, and advancement of technology infrastructure can lead to more people being eligible to vote. While we cannot omit the fact that there may be repetitions of the voter data due to technology and record errors, only the actual number of those who voted are accounted for the election result.
It is a simple truth that the number of voters will increase as more people become eligible voters. According to the 2019 inter census report, the number of the population above 18 years old is 34.4 millions and the number of voters is 27.7 million. Therefore, the turn out rate is 79.9%. according to the census data.
Calculations were based on the numbers of eligible voters and that of the actual voters. As shown in the figure, in 2010, even amidst the underdeveloped IT and communication infrastructure, the highest percentage of the turnout rate was recorded at 74.51%. So, it leaves no room for doubt that the turnout rate in 2020 can very well be 71.84%.
All these point out that the accusations against Union Election Commission for election fraud are well beyond logical reasoning. (Again, highlighting the fact that the comparison for voter numbers among different elections should be calculated only on the turn-out numbers, and not the eligible voter population).
This information is open to public.
(Data reference from 2014 census population, 2019 inter census population, and election results (2010, 2015 and 2020) from Union Election Commission)
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