Explanatory notes on the Odd Protocol
This is an Agent-Based Model being built to assist with modeling the spread, health and economic impact of COVID 19 in Australia and policy-settings during its expansion and contraction phase that could limit its damage to health and the economy.
The model is being built as data comes to hand. At all times it should be regarded as a work in progress and should not be relied upon as a sole basis for decision-making. Like all models, it should be compared to the available observed evidence and considered alongside other inputs. While we have calibrated it against historical patterns in Australia, China, and NZ, and strive to ensure its accuracy, we can of course make no absolute current guarantees about its validity.
There are multiple versions of the model available in the repository - all of which have slightly different purposes and were built to answer slightly different questions.
The core model 'COVID Simuls' is the most generic and was set up to answer early questions from a 'whole of Australia' perspective.
Models relating to the current Victorian situation are not included in the repository, but they can be considered analogous in many ways to those that are. We will release a generic Victorian version in the near future.
The ODD protocol has been built on the Australian model and will be updated over time to reflect additional functions and features as new questions are asked of the model. You should look for the most recent version of the ODD protocol available in the repository for the most recent version as the url for this will be updated over time.
The team contributing to this model is primarily based at the University of Melbourne, with input from the University of New England and various other contributors from institutions around Australia and the World. It is made up of Epidemiologists, data scientists, computational social scientists, and social scientists.
The model will be updated regularly as it is constructed.
If you have any specific questions or would like to contribute / comment, please contact jason.thompson@unimelb.edu.au .