gaseous / ENSO-math

The mathematics of El Niño

APMA 4990 Fall 2020

T & TH 11:40am-12:55pm

M. K. Tippett [e-mail]

Goals/Outcomes

1. Learn basic properties of the El Nino-Southern Oscilation.
2. Do some applied math/climate science data analysis

Overview

1. ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation)
   1. What is ENSO?
   2. How is ENSO predicted?
   3. What are impacts of ENSO?
2. Math
   1. Descriptive statistics
   2. Time series modeling
   3. Multivariate statistical analysis
3. Lectures and activities use Python in Jupyter notebooks.
4. ENSO, math, and python material will be self contained.

Structure

1. Two lectures per week. Reading assignments and homework.
   1. Theory (lecture, reading discusion)
   2. Practical data activity (introduction to the homework)
2. Homework approximately weekly
   1. Usually in the form of a Jupyter notebook
   2. Turn in using github or something
3. Final project
   1. Reproduce/extend published work – original research (depending on ambition)
   2. Project proposals due Nov 6.
   3. "Plot the data" due Nov. 21.
   4. Detailed project outlines due Dec 3. Include:
      • Brief data set descriptions
      • Scientific question and what calculations will address them
   5. Dec 10: In class project presentations. 90 minutes. 11:30am - 1pm.
   6. Project reports due Thursday, December 17.
      • Background. What has been done before? What are you doing? Extending? Reproducing?
      • Data and methods
        • Data sets
        • Analysis
      • Results
      • Conclusions
      • References
      • 4 - 6 pages (text either in notebook or separate pdf). Notebook with all analysis + figures.

Grading: 40% homework, 20% participation, 40% project.

Some resources

1. The ENSO blog.
2. The El Niño-Southern oscillation phenomenon by Edward S. Sarachik and Mark A. Cane. 2010.
3. An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation by Allen Clarke. 2008.
4. El Niño, La Niña, and the southern oscillation by S. George Philander. 1990.
5. Nonlinear physical oceanography: a dynamical systems approach to the large scale ocean circulation and El Niño by Henk A. Dijkstra
6. Python information is everywhere. Notebooks on python, numpy, and matlibplot from APAM Profs. Mandli and Speigelman https://github.com/mspieg/intro-numerical-methods

Doesn't launch in a pango binder

Launches slowly in a pango binder