AnBowell / SimFarm2030

Attempting to forecast wheat yields in the UK using Bayesian methods. This was a project undertaken over my second year at university, and mostly contains analysis scripts.

SimFarm2030

This GitHub contains python scripts which will allow the reading and plotting of netCDF4 files as well as adapted FACYNation codes

Andrew To Do

• Create Python script to read netCDF4 files
• Create Python scipt to plot the data
• Collect ALL data needed
• Start adapting FACYNation codes
• Train model on 5 regions and predict on a sixth

To Do

• Model AOT40 over the entire county. Can then be used as an input to yield model (3-D Guassian)
• Change stan model from monthly rain/temp inputs to daily
• Define a weighting for months running up to harvest
• Compare test site to performance over the UK.

Here are some example images from the project's data so far.

Plot Of Average Monthly Temp	Plot Of Daily Rainfall

Here is a flow chart explaining the process of adapting the FACYnation codes (Clickable links only available as PDF found at bottom of page)

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/AnBowell/SimFarm2030/master/Example_Images/FlowChart/FACY2SIM.pdf