Batch Trend question -- not sure if a bug or I just don't understand :-)
LiamKnuj2 opened this issue · comments
Not sure I understand the math/data/APIs. E.g., in AZ right now, Biden's margin is down to 14,000 votes. Trump's needs (Hurdle) 63.8% of the estimated 54k remaining ballots, to win. His moving average (Batch Trend) is 58.7% over the last 30,000 ballots counted. In the most recent (2 hours ago) Change of 6,252 votes, Trump got only 51.1%. So why does it show Trump's average (Batch Trend) increasing from 57.1% three hours ago to 58.7% two hours ago, when that two-hour (and biggest) Batch Breakdown shows his share decreasing to 51.1%?
Thanks for your work! Very much appreciated!
The trend is based on the last 30,000 votes so you have to see what votes are getting dropped from the end. In this case there appears to be a very pro-Biden batch that is moving out of the 30k window. We dont have vote-by-vote data so we have to extrapolate a bit from the batch breakdowns.